week 18
this weekBUY-LOW
last week—
Kyle Backhus
data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
Buy Low fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — luck-free xERA 3.85 sits 0.25 below league, a real arm the ERA is hiding; BABIP-against 0.380 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.90 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 15ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Backhus is a buy-low — ERA is BABIP noise, not skill.
ERA ugly, but the skill it regresses to is league-or-better and the BABIP-against is unsustainable. Buy low.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %22.7%—+2.2% ▲vs his ~20.5% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.85 sits 0.25 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.380 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
- p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed34.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.0%vs his norm —
53 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.3%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is below the ~8.0% league average — expect it to rise.
53 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.304
lg avg .315 ▼−.011vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
75 / 200 TBF
xERA3.85
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.25vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
75 / 200 TBF
ERA6.19
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.09vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
16 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm +2.2% ▲
75 / 70 TBF
Walk %4.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.0%vs his norm −1.8% ▼Walk % is below his ~5.8% norm — expect it to rise.
75 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.380
lg avg .295 ▲+.085vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
53 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.4%vs his norm —
75 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.7%vs his norm —
75 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo90.7 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−3.3 mphvs his norm —
277 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.7%→21.1%signal15 K — K% 22.7% (signal) tempered to career ~20.5% → projected 21.1% over ~15 remaining…
xERA 3.85noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.85 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 10 IP.
BB% 4.0% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 4% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.301 gives a 1.19 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.