week 28
this weekBUY-LOW
last week—
Kyle Backhus
data as of October 3, 2026·week 28
Buy Low fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — luck-free xERA 4.01 sits 0.09 below league, a real arm the ERA is hiding; BABIP-against 0.349 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.88 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Backhus is a buy-low — the ERA is BABIP noise, not his skill.
ERA ugly, but the skill it regresses to is league-or-better and the BABIP-against is unsustainable. Buy low.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %21.3%—+0.8% ▲vs his ~20.5% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.01 sits 0.09 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.349 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
- p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed30.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−9.7%vs his norm —
66 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.5%vs his norm —
66 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.308
lg avg .315 ▼−.007vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
94 / 200 TBF
xERA4.01
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.09vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
94 / 200 TBF
ERA4.95
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.85vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
20 / 200 IP
Strikeout %21.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm +0.8% ▲
94 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.6%vs his norm +0.6% ▲Walk % is above his ~5.8% norm — expect it to fall.
94 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.349
lg avg .295 ▲+.054vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
66 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.5%vs his norm —
94 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —
94 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo90.7 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−3.3 mphvs his norm —
354 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 21.3%→20.8%signal0 K — K% 21.3% (signal) tempered to career ~20.5% → projected 20.8% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.01noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.01 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 10 IP.
BB% 6.4% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.299 gives a 1.30 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.