week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Chase Shugart
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
new call as of September 10, 2026
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.95); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 4WHIP 1.24ERA 3.70W 0–1SV 0
Shugart is a hold — league average, no luck to give back
ROS projects K 20 YTD → 4 ROS, WHIP 0.93 YTD → 1.24 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %27.8%—+7.6% ▲vs his ~20.2% career norm
- Walk %9.3%—+1.1% ▲vs his ~8.2% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.95)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed34.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.3%vs his norm —
118 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed11.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.0%vs his norm —
118 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.307
lg avg .315 ▼−.008vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
194 / 200 TBF
xERA3.95
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.15vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
194 / 200 TBF
ERA4.50
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.40vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
46 / 200 IP
Strikeout %27.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.8%vs his norm +7.6% ▲
194 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm +1.1% ▲
194 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.269
lg avg .295 ▼−.026vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
118 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.9%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
194 / 60 TBF
Chase %25.4%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−3.1%vs his norm —
194 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.1 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.1 mphvs his norm —
765 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 27.8%→23.9%signal4 K — K% 27.8% (signal) tempered to career ~20.2% → projected 23.9% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 3.95noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.95 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 19 IP.
BB% 9.3% + contactsignal1.24 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.291 gives a 1.28 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.