week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekNO CALL
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Chase Shugart
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Shugart is a sell-high — ERA is built on a BABIP mirage.
His ERA is 2.33, but the drivers pointing at regression are clearer than the sample is small. The core of the surface line is his BABIP-against: .244, 51 points below the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to stabilize, and he has only 48 — that gap is luck, not a repeatable run-prevention skill. His expected ERA is 3.47, over a full run higher than the actual number, and that gap is the regression curve waiting to bite. He does strike out 26.7% of batters, above the 22% league average, and his sample of 75 batters faced is past the stabilization point for that indicator. The K rate is a real positive. The ERA is not. Limited data: this call rests on the clear surface-versus-skill gap. Sell high.
Sell High
high0.95
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.244 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.47 is 1.14 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.6%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.4%too early to trust
NOISE48 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.3%too early to trust
NOISE48 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.296
lg avg .315 ▼−.019too early to trust
NOISE75 / 200 TBF
xERA3.47
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.63too early to trust
NOISE75 / 200 TBF
ERA2.33
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.77too early to trust
NOISE19.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %26.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.7%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL75 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.7%too early to trust
NOISE75 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.244
lg avg .295 ▼−.051too early to trust
NOISE48 / 800 BIP