week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Chase Shugart
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
new call as of July 18, 2026
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (4.77); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 19ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 1–3SV 0
Shugart is a hold — noise around a league-average core.
ROS projects K 20 YTD → 19 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %27.2%—+7.0% ▲vs his ~20.2% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.77)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.0%vs his norm —
77 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed11.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.7%vs his norm —
77 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.336
lg avg .315 ▲+.021vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
125 / 200 TBF
xERA4.77
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.67vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
125 / 200 TBF
ERA4.97
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.87vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
29 / 200 IP
Strikeout %27.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.2%vs his norm +7.0% ▲
125 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.8%vs his norm +0.6% ▲Walk % is above his ~8.2% norm — expect it to fall.
125 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.300
lg avg .295 ▲+.005vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
77 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —
125 / 60 TBF
Chase %25.8%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−2.7%vs his norm —
125 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.1 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.1 mphvs his norm —
485 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 27.2%→22.9%signal19 K — K% 27.2% (signal) tempered to career ~20.2% → projected 22.9% over ~22 remaining…
xERA 4.77noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.77 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 19 IP.
BB% 8.8% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.295 gives a 1.28 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role1-3 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.