MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Chase Shugart
week 31
this weekBUY
last weekNO CALL

Chase Shugart

PHI·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
new call as of October 26, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.78, 0.32 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.med 0.70
ROSK 0ERA 3.75WHIP 1.26W 0–0SV 0

Shugart is a buy — the velocity is climbing and the earned run prevention is real.

His fastball is sitting at 96.1 mph, two ticks above the league average of 94.0, and it has been stepping up across the sample. That is the engine behind a stable expected ERA of 3.78, which is 0.32 below the league average of 4.10 and based on enough batters faced to trust. The rate stats confirm the run prevention is not just contact luck: he strikes out 26.5% of batters against a 22% league mark. The one crack is the walks, 9% versus 8% league, and he gets fewer swinging strikes than average, so there is some traffic to navigate. But the hard contact allowed — 33.6% against a 40% league rate — is well below average, and the xERA has trended down as the velocity has ticked up. Buy. Deep-league asset: the 3.75 ERA and 1.26 WHIP hold value now, so stash him before the strikeout volume arrives.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %26.5%—+6.3% ▲vs his ~20.2% career norm
  • Walk %9.0%—+0.8% ▲vs his ~8.2% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.78, 0.32 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed33.6%
believable since Jun 1133.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.4%vs his norm —
140 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.0%
10.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —
140 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.300
.300*
lg avg .315 ▼−.015vs his norm —
223 / 200 TBF
xERA3.78
3.78*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.32vs his norm —
223 / 200 TBF
ERA4.03
4.03*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.07vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
53.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %26.5%
norm26.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.5%vs his norm +6.3% ▲
223 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.0%
norm9.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.0%vs his norm +0.8% ▲
223 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.254
.254*
lg avg .295 ▼−.041vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
140 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.4%
9.4%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.6%vs his norm —
223 / 60 TBF
Chase %25.7%
25.7%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−2.8%vs his norm —
223 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.1 mph
96.1 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.1 mphvs his norm —
867 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 26.5%→23.5%signal0 K — K% 26.5% (signal) tempered to career ~20.2% → projected 23.5% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.78signal3.75 ERA — xERA 3.78 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 19 IP.
BB% 9.0% + contactsignal1.26 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.288 gives a 1.27 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.75 ERA, 1.26 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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