Rest of Season Projection
ChaseCategoryWill
34K →39
3.70ERA3.70
1.24WHIP1.24
2–6W ←1–3
0SV →1–3
Current Season
ChaseCategoryWill
20K20
2.33ERA ←7.23
0.93WHIP ←1.45
2W ←1
0SV →1
What Each Player's System Trusts
Chase Shugart
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.244 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.48 is 1.15 above the ERA — regression coming
Will Vest
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.340 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Chase Shugart: 34 K / 3.70 ERA. Will Vest: 39 K / 3.70 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).