MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Will Vest
week 17
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekNO CALL

Will Vest

DET·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
ON THE 15-DAY IL
new call
Buy Low fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — luck-free xERA 3.90 sits 0.20 below league, a real arm the ERA is hiding; BABIP-against 0.351 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.90
ROSK 22ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 1–2SV 1–1

Vest is a buy-low — his ERA is BABIP noise, not his arm.

Vest's ERA is 6.08, but the skill his expected ERA points to is 3.90 — below league average and a full two runs better. The culprit is his BABIP-against: .351, 56 points above the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable; he has 77. That gap is luck, not a sign that hitters are squaring him up. His hard-hit rate allowed is 35.1%, well below the league average of 40.0%, and his barrel rate allowed is 5.2% against a league average of 8.0%. His strikeout rate, swinging-strike rate, and chase rate all sit above their respective league averages. His fastball velocity is 95.8 mph and has been stepping up across the sample — a real arm underneath the ugly surface. The ERA is the lie; the underlying numbers are the truth. Buy low. 22 K, 3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 1-2 W, 1-1 SV — a deep-league buy-low with skill gap.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %23.3%—−0.4% ▼vs his ~23.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.90 sits 0.20 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.351 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.1%
35.1%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.9%vs his norm —
77 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.2%
5.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.8%vs his norm —
77 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.307
.307*
lg avg .315 ▼−.008vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
116 / 200 TBF
xERA3.90
3.90*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.20vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
116 / 200 TBF
ERA6.08
6.08*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.98vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
26.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.3%
norm23.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm −0.4% ▼
116 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.6%
norm8.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.6%vs his norm +0.8% ▲Walk % is above his ~7.8% norm — expect it to fall.
116 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.351
.351*
lg avg .295 ▲+.056vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
77 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.2%
13.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.2%vs his norm —
116 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.5%
33.5%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.0%vs his norm —
116 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.8 mph
95.8 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.8 mphvs his norm —
484 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 23.3%→23.5%signal22 K — K% 23.3% (signal) held to career ~23.7% → projected 23.5% over ~20 remaining IP.
xERA 3.90noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.90 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 19 IP.
BB% 8.6% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.300 gives a 1.36 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)1-1 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep2 SV, 3.70 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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