MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Will Vest
week 31
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekNO CALL

Will Vest

DET·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
ON THE 60-DAY IL
new call
Buy Low fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — luck-free xERA 3.98 sits 0.12 below league, a real arm the ERA is hiding; BABIP-against 0.351 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.90
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0–0

Vest is a buy-low — his ERA is BABIP noise, not the arm

His ERA is 6.08, and that number is doing him dirty. The culprit is his BABIP-against: .351, 56 points above the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 77 — that gap is luck, not a signal about his pitching. Strip out the noise and his expected ERA is 3.98, actually a touch below the league average of 4.1. The underlying skills back that up: he strikes out 23.3% of batters, above the 22% league mark, and his swinging-strike rate of 13.2% beats league by two points. His fastball is averaging 95.8 mph, well above the 94.0 league average, and it has been stepping up across the sample. The arm is fine; the surface is not. Buy low. A 3.70 ERA and 1.24 WHIP rest on that same skill, so it's a cheap deep-league buy, not a must-add.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %23.3%—−0.4% ▼vs his ~23.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.98 sits 0.12 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.351 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.1%
35.1%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.9%vs his norm —
77 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.2%
5.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.8%vs his norm —
77 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.307
.307*
lg avg .315 ▼−.008vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
116 / 200 TBF
xERA3.98
3.98*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.12vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
116 / 200 TBF
ERA6.08
6.08*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.98vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
26.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.3%
norm23.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm −0.4% ▼
116 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.6%
norm8.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.6%vs his norm +0.8% ▲Walk % is above his ~7.8% norm — expect it to fall.
116 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.351
.351*
lg avg .295 ▲+.056vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
77 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.2%
13.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.2%vs his norm —
116 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.5%
33.5%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.0%vs his norm —
116 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.8 mph
95.8 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.8 mphvs his norm —
484 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 23.3%→23.5%signal0 K — K% 23.3% (signal) held to career ~23.7% → projected 23.5% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.98noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.98 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 19 IP.
BB% 8.6% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.300 gives a 1.36 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)0-0 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep1 SV, 3.70 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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