week 10
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekNO CALL
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Will Vest
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Vest is a buy-low — bloated ERA, clean underlying skill.
His ERA of 7.23 is ugly, but the building blocks say something else. The number inflating it is his BABIP-against, .340 against a league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to stabilize, and he has 56 BIP — that gap is luck, not a sign of poor pitching. Strip that out: his expected ERA is 3.37, nearly four runs lower, though still noisy at 83 TBF. The skills are already stable: he limits hard contact (35.7% hard-hit rate vs 40.0% league, 56 BBE past the 50 threshold) and strikes out 24.1% of batters, above the 22.0% league average. The fundamentals are good; the surface is noise. He's a buy-low while the ERA scares the market.
Buy Low
high0.90
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.340 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.3%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL56 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.9%too early to trust
NOISE56 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.292
lg avg .315 ▼−.023too early to trust
NOISE83 / 200 TBF
xERA3.37
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.73too early to trust
NOISE83 / 200 TBF
ERA7.23
lg avg 4.10 ▲+3.13too early to trust
NOISE18.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.1%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL83 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.4%too early to trust
NOISE83 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.340
lg avg .295 ▲+.045too early to trust
NOISE56 / 800 BIP