MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Will Vest
week 25
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekNO CALL

Will Vest

DET·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
ON THE 60-DAY IL
new call
Buy Low fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — luck-free xERA 3.95 sits 0.15 below league, a real arm the ERA is hiding; BABIP-against 0.351 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.90
ROSK 5ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0–0

Vest is a buy-low — the ERA is BABIP noise, not skill.

His ERA is 6.08, and the number doing the damage is his BABIP-against: .351 against a league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 77 — that gap is luck, not a read on his stuff. Strip out the noise and his expected ERA is 3.95, .15 better than league average. The arm supports it. His fastball is at 95.8 mph, well above the 94.0 league mark, and it has been stepping up across the sample. He strikes out 23.3% of batters, gets swings outside the zone at 33.5%, and is holding opponents to a 35.1% hard-hit rate and 5.2% barrels, all on the right side of league average. The surface is ugly; the pitcher underneath is fine. Buy low. Buy low: 5 K, 3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP is a deep-league stash, not a roster-anywhere asset.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %23.3%—−0.4% ▼vs his ~23.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.95 sits 0.15 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.351 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.1%
35.1%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.9%vs his norm —
77 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.2%
5.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.8%vs his norm —
77 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.307
.307*
lg avg .315 ▼−.008vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
116 / 200 TBF
xERA3.95
3.95*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.15vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
116 / 200 TBF
ERA6.08
6.08*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.98vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
26.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.3%
norm23.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm −0.4% ▼
116 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.6%
norm8.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.6%vs his norm +0.8% ▲Walk % is above his ~7.8% norm — expect it to fall.
116 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.351
.351*
lg avg .295 ▲+.056vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
77 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.2%
13.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.2%vs his norm —
116 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.5%
33.5%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.0%vs his norm —
116 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.8 mph
95.8 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.8 mphvs his norm —
484 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 23.3%→23.5%signal5 K — K% 23.3% (signal) held to career ~23.7% → projected 23.5% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 3.95noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.95 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 19 IP.
BB% 8.6% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.300 gives a 1.36 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)0-0 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep1 SV, 3.70 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups