MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 30, 2026
week 27
this weekBUY-LOW
last week—

Alan Rangel

PHI·P
data as of September 30, 2026·week 27
Buy Low fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — luck-free xERA 4.27 is right around league, a usable arm the ERA is hiding; BABIP-against 0.360 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.90
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0

Rangel is a buy-low — his ERA is BABIP noise, not skill.

His ERA sits at 5.88, and that number is doing him a disservice. His BABIP-against is .360, 65 points above the league average of .295 — and BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable. He has 79. That gap is luck, not a verdict on his pitching. His expected ERA is 4.27, right around league average, so the skill isn't a mirage. He misses bats at a 12.2% swinging-strike rate, a touch above league, and his barrel rate allowed is 5.1% — well below the 8.0% league mark. The fastball has ticked down across the sample to 92.9 mph, just under league, but the contact profile and strikeout rate say the arm still plays. Buy low. 0 K / 3.70 ERA / 1.24 WHIP rest-of-season makes him a deep-league hold, not a drop — buy the dip while the surface stays ugly.

Drivers

  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.27 is right around league — a usable arm the ERA is hiding
  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.360 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed30.4%
30.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−9.6%vs his norm —
79 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.1%
5.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.9%vs his norm —
79 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.317
.317*
lg avg .315 ▲+.002vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
123 / 200 TBF
xERA4.27
4.27*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.17vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
123 / 200 TBF
ERA5.88
5.88*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.78vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
26 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.6%
23.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm —
123 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.6%
10.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.6%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
123 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.360
.360*
lg avg .295 ▲+.065vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
79 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.2%
12.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.2%vs his norm —
123 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.5%
33.5%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.0%vs his norm —
123 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.9 mph
92.9 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.1 mphvs his norm —
491 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 23.6%→23.7%signal0 K — K% 23.6% (signal) held to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 23.7% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.27noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.27 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 8 IP.
BB% 10.6% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 11% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.301 gives a 1.45 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups