week 17
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY-LOW
José Alvarado
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Buy Low fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — luck-free xERA 3.71 sits 0.39 below league, a real arm the ERA is hiding; BABIP-against 0.444 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.90 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 26ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 1–2SV 0–2
Alvarado is a buy-low — poor ERA masks real skill.
ERA ugly, but the skill it regresses to is league-or-better and the BABIP-against is unsustainable. Buy low.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %29.2%—−0.2% ▼vs his ~29.4% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.71 sits 0.39 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.444 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
- p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed27.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−12.3%vs his norm —
94 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.7%vs his norm —
94 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.300
lg avg .315 ▼−.015vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
161 / 200 TBF
xERA3.71
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.39vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
161 / 200 TBF
ERA6.82
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.72vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
33 / 200 IP
Strikeout %29.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+7.2%vs his norm −0.2% ▼
161 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm −3.4% ▼Walk % is below his ~12.1% norm — expect it to rise.
161 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.444
lg avg .295 ▲+.149vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
94 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.5%vs his norm —
161 / 60 TBF
Chase %34.9%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.4%vs his norm —
161 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.6 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.6 mphvs his norm —
688 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 29.2%→29.3%signal26 K — K% 29.2% (signal) held to career ~29.4% → projected 29.3% over ~19 remaining IP.
xERA 3.71noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.71 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 19 IP.
BB% 8.7% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.312 gives a 1.31 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-2 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.