MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of José Alvarado
week 25
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY-LOW

José Alvarado

PHI·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Buy Low luck-free xERA 3.84 sits 0.26 below league, a real arm the ERA is hiding; fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — BABIP-against 0.368 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.90
ROSK 6ERA 3.79WHIP 1.34W 0–0SV 0–0

Alvarado is a buy-low — his ERA is BABIP noise, not the arm.

His ERA is 5.40, but that number is being dragged by a BABIP-against of .368, 73 points above the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable and he has 142, so that gap is luck, not a signal about his pitching. Take the noise out and his expected ERA is 3.84, .26 better than league average — he has faced enough batters for that number to mean something, and it has been stepping down across the sample. The stuff backs it up: 97.2 mph on the fastball, above league, and moving up; opposing hitters make weak contact against him. The surface is ugly and the arm is fine. Buy low. 6 K and a 3.79 ERA is a deep-league stash only — buy the dip, but don't expect saves.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %26.9%—−2.5% ▼vs his ~29.4% career norm
  • Walk %10.1%—−2.0% ▼vs his ~12.1% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.84 sits 0.26 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.368 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed29.6%
29.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−10.4%vs his norm —
142 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.9%
believable since Jun 34.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.1%vs his norm —
142 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.303
.303*
lg avg .315 ▼−.012vs his norm —
238 / 200 TBF
xERA3.84
3.84*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.26vs his norm —
238 / 200 TBF
ERA5.40
5.40*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.30vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
51.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %26.9%
norm26.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.9%vs his norm −2.5% ▼
238 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.1%
norm10.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.1%vs his norm −2.0% ▼
238 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.368
.368*
lg avg .295 ▲+.073vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
142 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.3%
13.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.3%vs his norm —
238 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.0%
33.0%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.5%vs his norm —
238 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.2 mph
97.2 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.2 mphvs his norm —
993 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 26.9%→28.1%signal6 K — K% 26.9% (signal) lifted to career ~29.4% → projected 28.1% over ~4 remaining IP.
xERA 3.84signal3.79 ERA — xERA 3.84 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 19 IP.
BB% 10.1% + contactsignal1.34 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.308 gives a 1.39 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-0 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.79 ERA, 1.34 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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