week 10
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY-LOW
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José Alvarado
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Alvarado is a buy-low — his ERA is BABIP noise, not skill.
His ERA sits at 5.59, but the ERA is lying. His BABIP-against is .464, 169 points above the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 58. That gap is luck, not a signal about his pitching. Strip out the noise and his expected ERA is 3.45, over two runs lower than what the box score shows. His contact suppression is elite: a 29.3% hard-hit rate allowed against a league average of 40.0%, and he has enough batted balls for that number to stick. He also strikes out 27.1% of batters, well above the 22% league average. Limited data: this call rests on the first stable sample of the season, which points to a pitcher who has been much better than the surface line. Buy low.
Buy Low
high0.90
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.464 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed29.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−10.7%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL58 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed1.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−6.3%too early to trust
NOISE58 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.295
lg avg .315 ▼−.020too early to trust
NOISE96 / 200 TBF
xERA3.45
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.65too early to trust
NOISE96 / 200 TBF
ERA5.59
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.49too early to trust
NOISE19.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %27.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.1%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL96 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.3%too early to trust
NOISE96 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.464
lg avg .295 ▲+.169too early to trust
NOISE58 / 800 BIP