José Alvarado
Alvarado is a buy-low — the ERA is BABIP, the arm is fine.
His ERA is 5.86, and that number is doing all the damage. The stat behind it is his BABIP-against: .380 against a league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 164 — that gap is luck, not a read on his pitching. Strip the noise out and his expected ERA is 4.12, right at league average. The contact quality agrees with the expected number: he allows a 31.7% hard-hit rate, well under the league's 40.0%, and 4.3% barrels against 8.0%. His fastball is at 97.2 mph, still rising across the sample, so the stuff has not gone anywhere. Walks are the one real worry at 11.4%. The surface is ugly; the arm underneath is not. Buy low. A 3.97 ERA and 1.40 WHIP ROS still profiles as a drop-tier arm — deep-league streaming-only until the walks tighten.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %25.6%—−3.8% ▼vs his ~29.4% career norm
- Walk %11.4%—−0.7% ▼vs his ~12.1% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.12 is right around league — a usable arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.380 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
- p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.