MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Bryce Harper
412 PA · week 17
this weekBUY
last weekBUY-LOW

Bryce Harper

PHI·1B
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from BUY-LOW on July 18, 2026
Buy stable xwOBA 0.391, +0.076 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; add now.high 0.75
ROSAVG .249HR 6R 27RBI 27SB 3

Harper is a buy — elite contact quality, no luck needed.

His expected wOBA is .391, .076 above league average, and that 412 PA sample has long cleared stabilization. His actual wOBA is .372, so he's actually under-earning relative to his contact. His hard-hit rate is 45.9%, well above league, and it's been stepping up across the sample. That's backed by a 90.1 mph average exit velocity and 11.2% barrel rate, both above league. He walks a ton (14.8%) and limits strikeouts (20.1%), even with an elevated swing-and-miss rate. The skill is real, the production is earned, and the trajectory is improving. Buy. 6 HR, 27 RBI, .249 AVG — deep-league asset; the underlying skill is elite, so buy before the counting stats catch up.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %11.2%—−1.4% ▼vs his ~12.6% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.391, +0.076 vs league — production is earned
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.1 mph
90.1 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.1 mphvs his norm —
268 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %45.9%
45.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+5.9%vs his norm —
268 / 50 BBE
Barrel %11.2%
norm11.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.2%vs his norm −1.4% ▼
268 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.391
.391*
lg avg .315 ▲+.076vs his norm —
412 / 160 PA
wOBA.372
.372*
lg avg .315 ▲+.057vs his norm —
412 / 200 PA
Strikeout %20.1%
20.1%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.9%vs his norm —
412 / 60 PA
Walk %14.8%
14.8%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+6.3%vs his norm —
412 / 120 PA
BABIP.282
norm.282*
lg avg .295 ▼−.013vs his norm −.042 ▼BABIP is below his ~.324 norm — expect it to rise.
268 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.6%
15.6%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.5%vs his norm —
412 / 50 PA
Chase %33.6%
33.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.1%vs his norm —
412 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 11.2%→11.8%signal6 HR — Barrel% 11.2% (signal) lifted to career ~12.6% → projected 11.8%.
BABIP 0.282→0.286 regressednoise.249 AVG — BABIP 0.282 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.287 (xBA 0.278) → 0.286.
on-base + lineup27 R — his run rate over ~194 projected PA.
slugging + lineup27 RBI — his RBI rate over ~194 projected PA.
run rate / role3 SB — his steal rate (4 in 59 G) over ~194 projected PA.
rosterdeeprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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