244 PA · week 10
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY-LOW
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Bryce Harper
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Harper is a buy-low — contact quality says the slump is noise.
His contact quality is stable and beyond the point where the numbers become reliable: 14.0% barrels, 42.1% hard-hit rate, and 89.5 mph average exit velocity, all above league average. His expected wOBA sits at .410, well above his actual wOBA of .375, and that gap lives in his BABIP. BABIP is .272, 23 points below league average, and he has 164 balls in play — far short of the ~800 needed to trust it. That depression is luck, not a skill change. His hard-hit rate has been stepping up across the sample. He is also striking out at a below-league 18.9% while walking at 13.9%. The bat is producing like a star; the bounces are just not cooperating. Buy low.
Buy Low
med0.67
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.272 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.5 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.5 mphtrustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL164 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %42.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.1%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL164 / 50 BBE
Barrel %14.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+6.0%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL164 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.410
lg avg .315 ▲+.095trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL244 / 160 PA
wOBA.375
lg avg .315 ▲+.060trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL244 / 200 PA
Strikeout %18.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.1%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL244 / 60 PA
Walk %13.9%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+5.4%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL244 / 120 PA
BABIP.272
lg avg .295 ▼−.023too early to trust
NOISE164 / 800 BIP