MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Bryce Harper
693 PA · week 31
this weekBUY
last weekBUY-LOW

Bryce Harper

PHI·1B
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from BUY-LOW on October 26, 2026
Buy stable xwOBA 0.379, +0.064 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; add now.med 0.73
ROSAVG .000HR 0R 0RBI 0SB 0

Harper is a buy — the contact is real and climbing

His expected wOBA is .379, 64 points above the league average of .315, and 693 plate appearances is well past the point where that number becomes reliable. His actual wOBA of .375 sits right on top of it, so the line is earned rather than inflated by batted-ball luck. The contact quality is elite and still moving in the right direction: a 42.8% hard-hit rate and 10.3% barrels over 437 batted balls, with the hard-hit rate stepping up across the sample. The walk rate is a loud 15.4% against a league mark of 8.5%. The strikeout rate is fine at 21.4%, though the swing-and-miss and chase rates run a touch hot for someone this disciplined — a quirk, not a problem. He is hitting the ball like one of the best hitters in the league and the results match. Buy.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %10.3%—−2.3% ▼vs his ~12.6% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.379, +0.064 vs league — production is earned
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.0 mph
90.0 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.0 mphvs his norm —
437 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %42.8%
42.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.8%vs his norm —
437 / 50 BBE
Barrel %10.3%
norm10.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.3%vs his norm −2.3% ▼
437 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.379
.379*
lg avg .315 ▲+.064vs his norm —
693 / 160 PA
wOBA.375
.375*
lg avg .315 ▲+.060vs his norm —
693 / 200 PA
Strikeout %21.4%
21.4%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm —
693 / 60 PA
Walk %15.4%
15.4%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+6.9%vs his norm —
693 / 120 PA
BABIP.309
norm.309*
lg avg .295 ▲+.014vs his norm −.015 ▼BABIP is below his ~.324 norm — expect it to rise.
437 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.3%
15.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.3%vs his norm —
693 / 50 PA
Chase %32.4%
32.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.9%vs his norm —
693 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 10.3%→11.0%signal0 HR — Barrel% 10.3% (signal) lifted to career ~12.6% → projected 11.0%.
BABIP 0.309→0.295 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.309 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.278 (xBA 0.271) → 0.295.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (4 in 59 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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