Rest of Season Projection
BryceCategoryPete
18HR →19
53R ←52
53RBI →55
6SB ←3
.270AVG ←.258
Current Season
BryceCategoryPete
13HR ←11
34R34
34RBI →36
4SB ←2
.261AVG ←.237
What Each Player's System Trusts
Bryce Harper
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.268 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
Pete Alonso
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.366, +0.051 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Bryce Harper: 18 HR / 53 R. Pete Alonso: 19 HR / 52 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).