Is Pete Alonso a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Buy — stable, above-average metrics signal genuine skill. Good ROS add target.

What is Pete Alonso's rest-of-season outlook?

56% hard-hit and a .402 xwOBA — elite contact, no luck needed.

700 PA · week 31

this weekBUY

last weekBUY-LOW

Pete Alonso

BAL·1B

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31

flipped from BUY-LOW on October 26, 2026

Buy stable xwOBA 0.402, +0.087 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; add now.high 0.77

ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Alonso is a buy — his contact quality keeps climbing and the numbers are earned.

His hard-hit rate sits at 56.2% against a league average of 40.0%, and it has stepped up across the sample rather than flattening out. The same shape shows in his expected wOBA, which is .402 — .087 above league average — and his 700 plate appearances are well past the point where that number becomes reliable. His actual wOBA of .379 runs below the expected figure, so the bounces have been slightly against him rather than carrying the line. He strikes out 24.1% of the time, close enough to league that it does not undercut the profile, and he walks 11.6%, giving him a second way on base. The results are not outrunning the underlying skill. Buy.

VS His Norm

Barrel %15.3%—−0.4% ▼vs his ~15.7% career norm

Drivers

xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.402, +0.087 vs league — production is earned
hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo93.9 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+4.9 mphvs his norm —

438 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %56.2%

lg avg 40.0% ▲+16.2%vs his norm —

438 / 50 BBE

Barrel %15.3%

lg avg 8.0% ▲+7.3%vs his norm −0.4% ▼

438 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.402

lg avg .315 ▲+.087vs his norm —

700 / 160 PA

wOBA.379

lg avg .315 ▲+.064vs his norm —

700 / 200 PA

Strikeout %24.1%

lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.1%vs his norm —

700 / 60 PA

Walk %11.6%

lg avg 8.5% ▲+3.1%vs his norm —

700 / 120 PA

BABIP.299

lg avg .295 ▲+.004vs his norm +.035 ▲BABIP is above his ~.264 norm — expect it to fall.

438 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %12.1%

lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —

700 / 50 PA

Chase %26.6%

lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.9%vs his norm —

700 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 15.3%→15.4%signal0 HR — Barrel% 15.3% (signal) lifted to career ~15.7% → projected 15.4%.

BABIP 0.299→0.312 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.299 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.327 (xBA 0.285) → 0.312.

on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.

slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.

run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (2 in 60 G) over ~0 projected PA.

rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons