Is Pete Alonso a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Buy — stable, above-average metrics signal genuine skill. Good ROS add target.

What is Pete Alonso's rest-of-season outlook?

56.9% hard-hit — Alonso's contact is a tier above

632 PA · week 25

this weekBUY

last weekBUY-LOW

Pete Alonso

BAL·1B

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25

flipped from BUY-LOW on September 10, 2026

Buy stable xwOBA 0.394, +0.079 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; add now.high 0.76

ROSHR 1AVG .256R 6RBI 6SB 0

Alonso is a buy — the contact is elite and climbing

His hard-hit rate has stepped up across the sample to 56.9%, against a league average of 40.0%, and it comes on 399 batted balls — well past the 50 needed to trust the number. The same upward shape shows in his expected wOBA, now .394, which is .079 above the league average and stable at 632 plate appearances. His actual wOBA of .371 sits below that, so nothing on his line is being propped up by luck; if anything the results trail the contact. He walks 11.4% of the time and strikes out 23.9%, roughly league rate, so the on-base floor holds. This bat is getting better, not bouncing. Buy.

VS His Norm

Barrel %14.0%—−1.7% ▼vs his ~15.7% career norm

Drivers

xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.394, +0.079 vs league — production is earned
hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo94.1 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+5.1 mphvs his norm —

399 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %56.9%

lg avg 40.0% ▲+16.9%vs his norm —

399 / 50 BBE

Barrel %14.0%

lg avg 8.0% ▲+6.0%vs his norm −1.7% ▼

399 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.394

lg avg .315 ▲+.079vs his norm —

632 / 160 PA

wOBA.371

lg avg .315 ▲+.056vs his norm —

632 / 200 PA

Strikeout %23.9%

lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.9%vs his norm —

632 / 60 PA

Walk %11.4%

lg avg 8.5% ▲+2.9%vs his norm —

632 / 120 PA

BABIP.307

lg avg .295 ▲+.012vs his norm +.043 ▲BABIP is above his ~.264 norm — expect it to fall.

399 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %12.3%

lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.4%vs his norm —

632 / 50 PA

Chase %27.6%

lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.9%vs his norm —

632 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 14.0%→14.6%signal1 HR — Barrel% 14.0% (signal) lifted to career ~15.7% → projected 14.6%.

BABIP 0.307→0.317 regressednoise.256 AVG — BABIP 0.307 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.326 (xBA 0.284) → 0.317.

on-base + lineup6 R — his run rate over ~44 projected PA.

slugging + lineup6 RBI — his RBI rate over ~44 projected PA.

run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (2 in 60 G) over ~44 projected PA.

rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons