Is Pete Alonso a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Buy — stable, above-average metrics signal genuine skill. Good ROS add target.

What is Pete Alonso's rest-of-season outlook?

54.8% hard-hit and .376 xwOBA show elite contact.

419 PA · week 17

this weekBUY

last weekBUY-LOW

Pete Alonso

BAL·1B

data as of July 18, 2026·week 17

flipped from BUY-LOW on July 18, 2026

Buy stable xwOBA 0.376, +0.061 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; add now.med 0.72

ROSHR 7AVG .253R 26RBI 28SB 2

Alonso is a buy — elite contact, no luck, trending up.

His expected wOBA is .376, .061 above league average, and that gap is earned — the sample is past 400 plate appearances, so the number is reliable. His actual wOBA is .355, which tracks close, so there is no luck story. The contact quality is elite and improving: a 54.8% hard-hit rate on 261 batted balls, nearly 15 points above league, and both his hard-hit rate and expected wOBA have stepped up across the sample. He does strike out a bit more than league average, but he walks more too. The trajectory is real and the production is earned. Buy. 7 HR, 26 R, 28 RBI, 2 SB, .253 AVG — a deep-league asset worth the buy.

VS His Norm

Barrel %12.6%—−3.1% ▼vs his ~15.7% career norm

Drivers

xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.376, +0.061 vs league — production is earned
hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo93.8 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+4.8 mphvs his norm —

261 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %54.8%

lg avg 40.0% ▲+14.8%vs his norm —

261 / 50 BBE

Barrel %12.6%

lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.6%vs his norm −3.1% ▼

261 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.376

lg avg .315 ▲+.061vs his norm —

419 / 160 PA

wOBA.355

lg avg .315 ▲+.040vs his norm —

419 / 200 PA

Strikeout %24.8%

lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.8%vs his norm —

419 / 60 PA

Walk %11.9%

lg avg 8.5% ▲+3.4%vs his norm —

419 / 120 PA

BABIP.292

lg avg .295 ▼−.003vs his norm +.028 ▲BABIP is above his ~.264 norm — expect it to fall.

261 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %12.3%

lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —

419 / 50 PA

Chase %26.1%

lg avg 28.5% ▼−2.4%vs his norm —

419 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 12.6%→13.9%signal7 HR — Barrel% 12.6% (signal) lifted to career ~15.7% → projected 13.9%.

BABIP 0.292→0.302 regressednoise.253 AVG — BABIP 0.292 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.307 (xBA 0.270) → 0.302.

on-base + lineup26 R — his run rate over ~199 projected PA.

slugging + lineup28 RBI — his RBI rate over ~199 projected PA.

run rate / role2 SB — his steal rate (2 in 60 G) over ~199 projected PA.

rosterdeeprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons