BAL

3.10 xERA, 95 mph heat, and a .201 BABIP fluke

56.9% hard-hit — Alonso's contact is a tier above

xERA 3.60 with a 5.9% walk rate — buy the gap.

48.8% hard-hit, .351 xwOBA — contact is real, BABIP overstates

4.86 ERA hides 3.49 xERA; .349 BABIP is the thief

BABIP .234 hides 91 mph contact — but 32% Ks cap it

15.7% strikeout rate can't support a 5.05 xERA.

4.1% barrels and 33% hard-hit — no power base.

xwOBA .286 with exit velo barely league — empty power.

xwOBA .298 and 26% Ks — nothing carries the bat.