MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
week 31
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY-LOW

Cam Sanders

BAL·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Buy Low fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — luck-free xERA 3.84 sits 0.26 below league, a real arm the ERA is hiding; BABIP-against 0.323 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.83
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0

Sanders is a buy-low — the ERA is BABIP noise, not his arm.

His 4.60 ERA is being inflated by a .323 BABIP-against, 28 points above the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable and he has 67, so that gap is luck, not a read on his pitching. The contact underneath is good: a 31.3% hard-hit rate allowed against a 40% league average, and a 4.5% barrel rate allowed against 8%, both on samples past the stabilization point. His fastball is at 96 mph and climbing across the sample, and he is striking out 30.5% of batters with a 16.4% swinging-strike rate. That is a real arm. The ERA is what the bounces have done to it, not what the stuff is. Buy low. The ROS line reads 3.70 ERA / 1.24 WHIP — a deep-league hold, not a drop, given the skill underneath.

Drivers

  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.84 sits 0.26 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.323 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed31.3%
31.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−8.7%vs his norm —
67 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.5%
4.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.5%vs his norm —
67 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.302
.302*
lg avg .315 ▼−.013vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
131 / 200 TBF
xERA3.84
3.84*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.26vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
131 / 200 TBF
ERA4.60
4.60*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.50vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
29.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %30.5%
30.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+8.5%vs his norm —
131 / 70 TBF
Walk %15.3%
15.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+7.3%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
131 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.323
.323*
lg avg .295 ▲+.028vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
67 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %16.4%
16.4%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+5.4%vs his norm —
131 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.9%
30.9%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.4%vs his norm —
131 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.0 mph
96.0 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.0 mphvs his norm —
547 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 30.5%→29.2%signal0 K — K% 30.5% (signal) tempered to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 29.2% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.84noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.84 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 8 IP.
BB% 15.3% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 15% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.297 gives a 1.51 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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