266 PA · week 25
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekHOLD
Carlos Narváez
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Buy Low contact quality already past its threshold and intact, the bat is fine; strikeout rate 32% is stable and high, caps the floor — BABIP 0.234 suppressed and unstable, dragging results below the bat; buy the player, not the number.med 0.69 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 1AVG .180R 4RBI 1SB 0
Narváez is a buy-low — the slump is BABIP, and the bat is fine
Cold results, but stable contact quality and a depressed BABIP say the slump is noise. Buy low.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %6.5%—−2.6% ▼vs his ~9.1% career norm
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.234 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 32% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo91.0 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+2.0 mphvs his norm —
154 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %39.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.0%vs his norm —
154 / 50 BBE
Barrel %6.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm −2.6% ▼
154 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.265
lg avg .315 ▼−.050vs his norm —
266 / 160 PA
wOBA.221
lg avg .315 ▼−.094vs his norm —
266 / 200 PA
Strikeout %32.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+10.3%vs his norm —
266 / 60 PA
Walk %6.8%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−1.7%vs his norm —
266 / 120 PA
BABIP.234
lg avg .295 ▼−.061vs his norm −.063 ▼BABIP is below his ~.297 norm — expect it to rise.
154 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %17.0%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+6.0%vs his norm —
266 / 50 PA
Chase %32.8%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.3%vs his norm —
266 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 6.5%→8.0%signal1 HR — Barrel% 6.5% (signal) lifted to career ~9.1% → projected 8.0%.
BABIP 0.234→0.254 regressednoise.180 AVG — BABIP 0.234 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.259 (xBA 0.194) → 0.254.
on-base + lineup4 R — his run rate over ~36 projected PA.
slugging + lineup1 RBI — his RBI rate over ~36 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (1 in 37 G) over ~36 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.