174 PA · week 17
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekHOLD
Carlos Narváez
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026
Buy Low contact quality already past its threshold and intact, the bat is fine; strikeout rate 32% is stable and high, caps the floor — BABIP 0.273 suppressed and unstable, dragging results below the bat; buy the player, not the number.med 0.66 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 4AVG .201R 18RBI 4SB 1
Narváez is a buy-low — contact quality backs the underlying skill.
Cold results, but stable contact quality and a depressed BABIP say the slump is noise. Buy low.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %6.7%—−2.4% ▼vs his ~9.1% career norm
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.273 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 32% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo91.4 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+2.4 mphvs his norm —
104 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %38.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —
104 / 50 BBE
Barrel %6.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.3%vs his norm −2.4% ▼
104 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.271
lg avg .315 ▼−.044vs his norm —
174 / 160 PA
wOBA.239
lg avg .315 ▼−.076vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
174 / 200 PA
Strikeout %31.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+9.6%vs his norm —
174 / 60 PA
Walk %6.9%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−1.6%vs his norm —
174 / 120 PA
BABIP.273
lg avg .295 ▼−.022vs his norm −.024 ▼BABIP is below his ~.297 norm — expect it to rise.
104 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %16.9%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+5.8%vs his norm —
174 / 50 PA
Chase %33.7%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.2%vs his norm —
174 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 6.7%→8.3%signal4 HR — Barrel% 6.7% (signal) lifted to career ~9.1% → projected 8.3%.
BABIP 0.273→0.277 regressednoise.201 AVG — BABIP 0.273 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.278 (xBA 0.207) → 0.277.
on-base + lineup18 R — his run rate over ~159 projected PA.
slugging + lineup4 RBI — his RBI rate over ~159 projected PA.
run rate / role1 SB — his steal rate (1 in 37 G) over ~159 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.