MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Blaze Alexander
246 PA · week 17
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Blaze Alexander

BAL·3B
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
ON THE 10-DAY IL
flipped from HOLD
Buy stable xwOBA 0.361, +0.046 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality — BABIP 0.396 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; add now.med 0.69
ROSHR 3AVG .287R 17RBI 16SB 7

Alexander is a buy — elite contact, real skill.

His expected wOBA is .361, well above the league average of .315, and his sample of 246 plate appearances is past the point where that number becomes reliable. His hard-hit rate has stepped up across the season to 48.8% — nearly nine points above league — and his average exit velocity is 92.6 mph, also well above average. Both are based on enough batted balls to trust. His actual wOBA sits at .354, slightly below his xwOBA, which suggests his production is earned, not lucky. His BABIP is .396, over 100 points above average, but BABIP is still unreliable at 170 balls in play — expect some regression in batting average, but the contact quality backing it is real. His strikeout rate is at the league average, so there’s no hole in the approach to worry about. The skill is stable and the trajectory is rising. Buy. 3 HR, 17 R, 16 RBI, 7 SB, .287 AVG — a standard-league asset worth rostering now.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %7.1%—−1.5% ▼vs his ~8.6% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.361, +0.046 vs league — production is earned
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.396 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo92.6 mph
92.6 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+3.6 mphvs his norm —
170 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %48.8%
48.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+8.8%vs his norm —
170 / 50 BBE
Barrel %7.1%
norm7.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm −1.5% ▼
170 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.361
.361*
lg avg .315 ▲+.046vs his norm —
246 / 160 PA
wOBA.354
.354*
lg avg .315 ▲+.039vs his norm —
246 / 200 PA
Strikeout %22.0%
22.0%*
lg avg 22.0% 0.0%vs his norm —
246 / 60 PA
Walk %6.5%
6.5%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−2.0%vs his norm —
246 / 120 PA
BABIP.396
norm.396*
lg avg .295 ▲+.101vs his norm +.063 ▲BABIP is above his ~.333 norm — expect it to fall.
170 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.5%
14.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.5%vs his norm —
246 / 50 PA
Chase %29.6%
29.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —
246 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 7.1%→7.9%signal3 HR — Barrel% 7.1% (signal) lifted to career ~8.6% → projected 7.9%.
BABIP 0.396→0.383 regressednoise.287 AVG — BABIP 0.396 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.380 (xBA 0.308) → 0.383.
on-base + lineup17 R — his run rate over ~157 projected PA.
slugging + lineup16 RBI — his RBI rate over ~157 projected PA.
run rate / role7 SB — his steal rate (6 in 50 G) over ~157 projected PA.
rosterstandard.287 AVG

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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