MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 27, 2026
230 PA · week 27
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Luis Robert Jr.

BAL·CF
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
ON THE 10-DAY IL
Hold · steady skill near league average (0.321); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Robert is a hold — league average, with the arrow pointing up

His expected wOBA is .321, six points above a league average of .315, and his 230 plate appearances are past the 160 needed for that number to be reliable. His actual wOBA is .311, almost exactly where the skill sits, so no luck is inflating the line and none is dragging it down. His contact quality is ordinary by the same measure: 89.8 mph off the bat against a league average of 89.0, a 40.4% hard-hit rate against 40.0%, and 9.9% barrels against 8.0%. The one number that stands apart is a 14.1% swinging-strike rate, and his expected wOBA has been stepping up across the sample. That direction is worth watching, but it is not yet a reason to move. Hold. 0 HR / 0 R / 0 RBI / 0 SB / .000 AVG — a drop-tier drag; the skill sits at average, so deep-league streamer at best.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %9.9%—−2.4% ▼vs his ~12.3% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.321)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.8 mph
89.8 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.8 mphvs his norm —
151 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %40.4%
40.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.4%vs his norm —
151 / 50 BBE
Barrel %9.9%
norm9.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.9%vs his norm −2.4% ▼
151 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.321
.321*
lg avg .315 ▲+.006vs his norm —
230 / 160 PA
wOBA.311
.311*
lg avg .315 ▼−.004vs his norm —
230 / 200 PA
Strikeout %23.9%
23.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.9%vs his norm —
230 / 60 PA
Walk %10.4%
10.4%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+1.9%vs his norm —
230 / 120 PA
BABIP.243
norm.243*
lg avg .295 ▼−.052vs his norm −.057 ▼BABIP is below his ~.300 norm — expect it to rise.
151 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.1%
14.1%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.1%vs his norm —
230 / 50 PA
Chase %32.7%
32.7%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.2%vs his norm —
230 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 9.9%→11.3%signal0 HR — Barrel% 9.9% (signal) lifted to career ~12.3% → projected 11.3%.
BABIP 0.243→0.264 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.243 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.268 (xBA 0.239) → 0.264.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (2 in 24 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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