MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Grant Wolfram
week 31
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekNO CALL

Grant Wolfram

BAL·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
new call as of October 26, 2026
Buy Low luck-free xERA 3.50 sits 0.60 below league, a real arm the ERA is hiding; fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — BABIP-against 0.360 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.84
ROSK 0ERA 3.50WHIP 1.25W 0–0SV 0

Wolfram is a buy-low — his ERA is hiding a real arm

His expected ERA is 3.50, six-tenths of a run better than league, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be trusted. The 4.30 on the scoreboard is being dragged there by his BABIP-against: .360, 65 points above the league average of .295. That stat needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable and he has 145 — the gap is luck, not contact. The underlying contact backs the skill: he allows a .289 expected wOBA against a .315 league mark and his hard-hit rate allowed sits below league with a sample past stabilization. He strikes out 27% of batters, well above league, and his fastball is up near 95.5 mph and climbing. The arm is trending the right way while the ERA runs the other. Buy low. The dip is the discount: 3.50 ERA, 1.25 WHIP rest-of-season makes him a deep-league stash, not a drop.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %27.0%—+1.8% ▲vs his ~25.2% career norm
  • Walk %7.1%—−0.7% ▼vs his ~7.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.50 sits 0.60 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.360 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.6%
believable since Jun 636.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.4%vs his norm —
145 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.2%
6.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.8%vs his norm —
145 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.289
.289*
lg avg .315 ▼−.026vs his norm —
226 / 200 TBF
xERA3.50
3.50*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.60vs his norm —
226 / 200 TBF
ERA4.30
4.30*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.20vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
52.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %27.0%
norm27.0%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.0%vs his norm +1.8% ▲
226 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.1%
norm7.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm −0.7% ▼
226 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.360
.360*
lg avg .295 ▲+.065vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
145 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.3%
12.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
226 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.2%
32.2%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.7%vs his norm —
226 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.5 mph
95.5 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.5 mphvs his norm —
901 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 27.0%→26.2%signal0 K — K% 27.0% (signal) tempered to career ~25.2% → projected 26.2% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.50signal3.50 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.50 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 7.1% + contactsignal1.25 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.307 gives a 1.26 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.50 ERA, 1.25 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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