MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Grant Wolfram
week 17
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekNO CALL

Grant Wolfram

BAL·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
new call as of July 18, 2026
Buy Low fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — luck-free xERA 3.38 sits 0.72 below league, a real arm the ERA is hiding; BABIP-against 0.362 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.90
ROSK 25ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 1–2SV 0

Wolfram is a buy-low — his ERA is inflated by BABIP noise.

His fastball velocity has stepped up across the sample and now sits at 95.2 mph, above league average. That stable velocity is a real asset. His ERA is 4.76, but the metric driving it up — BABIP-against at .362 — is pure noise at 82 balls in play. His expected ERA is 3.38, nearly a run and a half lower and below league average. Underneath the bloated ERA, his hard-hit and barrel rates are both below league averages, his strikeout rate is 25.8%, well above league, and his swinging-strike and chase rates are above league as well. The arm is real; the surface is not. Buy low. 25 K, 3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP make him a deep-league buy-low asset while the market overcorrects.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %25.8%—+0.6% ▲vs his ~25.2% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.38 sits 0.72 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.362 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.8%
believable since Jun 637.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.2%vs his norm —
82 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.1%
6.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.9%vs his norm —
82 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.287
.287*
lg avg .315 ▼−.028vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
124 / 200 TBF
xERA3.38
3.38*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.72vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
124 / 200 TBF
ERA4.76
4.76*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.66vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
28.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.8%
norm25.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.8%vs his norm +0.6% ▲
124 / 70 TBF
Walk %4.8%
norm4.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.2%vs his norm −3.0% ▼Walk % is below his ~7.8% norm — expect it to rise.
124 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.362
.362*
lg avg .295 ▲+.067vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
82 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.4%
12.4%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.4%vs his norm —
124 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.4%
31.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.9%vs his norm —
124 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.2 mph
95.2 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.2 mphvs his norm —
466 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 25.8%→25.5%signal25 K — K% 25.8% (signal) tempered to career ~25.2% → projected 25.5% over ~19 remaining…
xERA 3.38noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.38 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 16 IP.
BB% 4.8% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 5% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.302 gives a 1.17 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups