MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Grant Wolfram
week 25
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekNO CALL

Grant Wolfram

BAL·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
new call as of September 10, 2026
Buy Low luck-free xERA 3.49 sits 0.61 below league, a real arm the ERA is hiding; fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — BABIP-against 0.349 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.90
ROSK 6ERA 3.49WHIP 1.25W 0–0SV 0

Wolfram is a buy-low — the 4.86 ERA is BABIP noise, the arm is real.

His ERA sits at 4.86, but the balls in play are telling a different story than his stuff is. His BABIP-against is .349 against a league average of .295, and BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable — he has 131. That gap is luck. Strip it out and his expected ERA is 3.49, more than a half-run better than the league average of 4.10, and that number has a stable sample behind it. The arm backs it up: he strikes out 26.2% of batters, walks just 6.9%, and his fastball is sitting at 95.5 mph — above league and stepping up across the sample. He has allowed a barrel rate and hard-hit rate both below league, which is the contact suppression the expected ERA is built on. The surface is lying; the skill underneath is not. Buy low. 6 K and a 3.49 ERA rest-of-season make him a deep-league stash, not a must-add — buy the dip where you can.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %26.2%—+1.0% ▲vs his ~25.2% career norm
  • Walk %6.9%—−0.9% ▼vs his ~7.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.49 sits 0.61 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.349 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.1%
believable since Jun 635.1%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.9%vs his norm —
131 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.1%
6.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.9%vs his norm —
131 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.290
.290*
lg avg .315 ▼−.025vs his norm —
202 / 200 TBF
xERA3.49
3.49*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.61vs his norm —
202 / 200 TBF
ERA4.86
4.86*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.76vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
46.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %26.2%
norm26.2%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.2%vs his norm +1.0% ▲
202 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.9%
norm6.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm −0.9% ▼
202 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.349
.349*
lg avg .295 ▲+.054vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
131 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.1%
12.1%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —
202 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.8%
32.8%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.3%vs his norm —
202 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.5 mph
95.5 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.5 mphvs his norm —
804 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 26.2%→25.7%signal6 K — K% 26.2% (signal) tempered to career ~25.2% → projected 25.7% over ~4 remaining IP.
xERA 3.49signal3.49 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.49 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 6.9% + contactsignal1.25 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.304 gives a 1.25 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.49 ERA, 1.25 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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