week 27
this weekHOLD
last week—
Trey Gibson
data as of September 30, 2026·week 27
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (6.15); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0WHIP 1.30ERA 4.10W 0–0SV 0
Gibson is a hold — league average with a walk problem to watch.
ROS projects K 5 YTD → 0 ROS, WHIP 1.53 YTD → 1.30 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (6.15)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed45.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+5.0%vs his norm —
120 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —
120 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.372
lg avg .315 ▲+.057vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
185 / 200 TBF
xERA6.15
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.05vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
185 / 200 TBF
ERA6.13
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.03vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
39.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.0%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.0%vs his norm —
185 / 70 TBF
Walk %14.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+6.6%vs his norm —
185 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.301
lg avg .295 ▲+.006vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
120 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.0%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.0%vs his norm —
185 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.5%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.0%vs his norm —
185 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.4 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.4 mphvs his norm —
711 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 20.0%→20.4%signal0 K — K% 20.0% (signal) lifted to SP mean ~22.0% → projected 20.4% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 6.15noise4.10 ERA — xERA 6.15 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 4.10 at 17 IP.
BB% 14.6% + contactsignal1.30 WHIP — a 15% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.296 gives a 1.69 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.10 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.