MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Shane Baz
week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL

Shane Baz

BAL·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from SELL on September 10, 2026
Hold · steady skill near league average (4.03); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSK 12ERA 4.03WHIP 1.38W 0–1SV 0

Baz is a hold — league-average skill, nothing pulling either way.

His expected ERA is 4.03, a hair under the league average of 4.10, and he has faced 695 batters, well past the point where that number becomes reliable. Nothing around it is unstable. His expected wOBA allowed is .310, right at the league mark, and his strikeout rate of 20.9% and walk rate of 8.2% both sit within a point of average. The contact metrics agree: his hard-hit rate allowed is 41.3% against a 40.0% league mark, and he is actually giving up fewer barrels than average. He does bring a 95.9 mph fastball, but the results it produces are ordinary. His expected ERA has been stepping down across the sample, which is worth watching and not yet worth acting on. Hold. 12 K and a 4.03 ERA is waiver-tier production — a deep-league streamer at best, not a hold worth protecting.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %20.9%—−2.8% ▼vs his ~23.7% career norm
  • Walk %8.2%—−0.6% ▼vs his ~8.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.03)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.3%
41.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
489 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.5%
6.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —
489 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.310
.310*
lg avg .315 ▼−.005vs his norm —
695 / 200 TBF
xERA4.03
4.03*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.07vs his norm —
695 / 200 TBF
ERA3.91
3.91*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.19vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
163.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.9%
norm20.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm −2.8% ▼
695 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.2%
norm8.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm −0.6% ▼
695 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.314
.314*
lg avg .295 ▲+.019vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
489 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.8%
10.8%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.2%vs his norm —
695 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.2%
30.2%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.7%vs his norm —
695 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.9 mph
95.9 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.9 mphvs his norm —
2651 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 20.9%→21.5%signal12 K — K% 20.9% (signal) lifted to career ~23.7% → projected 21.5% over ~13 remaining IP.
xERA 4.03signal4.03 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 4.03 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 8.2% + contactsignal1.38 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.307 gives a 1.42 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop12 K ROS, 4.03 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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