week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL
Shane Baz
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from SELL on July 18, 2026
Hold · leans sell skill near league average (4.33); a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 54ERA 4.25WHIP 1.39W 1–3SV 0
Baz is a hold — league-average skill, nothing driving change.
ROS projects K 57 YTD → 54 ROS, ERA 4.48 YTD → 4.25 ROS, WHIP 1.43 YTD → 1.39 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %20.5%—−3.2% ▼vs his ~23.7% career norm
- Walk %8.7%—−0.1% ▼vs his ~8.8% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.33)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.4%vs his norm —
338 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm —
338 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.322
lg avg .315 ▲+.007vs his norm —
482 / 200 TBF
xERA4.33
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.23vs his norm —
482 / 200 TBF
ERA4.19
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.09vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
111.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm −3.2% ▼
482 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm −0.1% ▼
482 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.316
lg avg .295 ▲+.021vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
338 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm —
482 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.9%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.4%vs his norm —
482 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.1 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.1 mphvs his norm —
1848 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 20.5%→21.4%signal54 K — K% 20.5% (signal) lifted to career ~23.7% → projected 21.4% over ~59 remaining IP.
xERA 4.33signal4.25 ERA — xERA 4.33 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 64 IP.
BB% 8.7% + contactsignal1.39 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.304 gives a 1.44 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role1-3 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop54 K ROS, 4.25 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.