MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 27, 2026
Aaron Civale
CHC · P
Change to
Portrait of Shane Baz
Shane Baz
BAL · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Too close to call.

They split your categories 1–1, 2 even. Take whoever fills a bigger need.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
▶
◀
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Aaron Civale wins 1 (WHIP); Shane Baz wins 1 (ERA); 2 even; SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Aaron Civale
91.5
Shane Baz
95.8
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Aaron Civale
9.6%
Shane Baz
10.4%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Aaron Civale
18.5%
Shane Baz
20.0%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Aaron Civale
31.1%
Shane Baz
29.9%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Aaron Civale
40.2%
Shane Baz
41.2%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Aaron Civale
8.0%
Shane Baz
6.8%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Aaron Civale
.320
Shane Baz
.317
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Aaron Civale
3.984.70
lg xERA 4.10
now 4.20
4.26
Shane Baz
3.984.70
lg xERA 4.10
now 4.48
4.20
WHIPlower is better
Aaron Civale
1.301.54
now 1.47
1.37
Shane Baz
1.301.54
now 1.43
1.38

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Aaron Civale
4079.80
now 39
0
Shane Baz
4079.80
now 57
0
Winshigher is better
Aaron Civale
.0007
now 5
0–0
Shane Baz
.0007
now 2
0–0

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
Hold · leans sellAaron Civale — hold.conf 0.60
Hold · leans sellShane Baz — hold.conf 0.60
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