MLB Daily DeltaWeek 12 · June 13, 2026
week 12
this weekSELL
last week—

Aaron Civale

ATH·P
data as of June 13, 2026·week 12
ON THE 15-DAY IL
Sell stable xERA 5.10 +1.00 vs league with no luck excuse; strikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling; move on.high 0.85
ROSK 73ERA 4.75WHIP 1.37W 5–11SV 0

Civale is a sell — his skill is below league with no luck excuse.

His expected ERA is 5.10, a full run above the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough hitters for that number to be reliable. His actual ERA will follow. There is no bad-luck story driving the number up: his walk rate is below league average and his barrel rate allowed is essentially league average. The problem is that his strikeout rate has dropped to 15.9%, well below his career baseline of 21.2% and trending further down. He simply is not missing enough bats, and the hard-hit rate against him is 47.9%, nearly eight points above league average. The stuff is what the numbers say it is. Sell. 73 K / 4.75 ERA / 1.37 WHIP: a streamer-only arm with an ERA that’s not misleading — drop.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %15.9%—−5.3% ▼vs his ~21.2% career norm
  • Walk %6.9%—+0.3% ▲vs his ~6.6% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.10 +1.00 vs league with no luck excuse
  • p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed47.9%
47.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+7.9%vs his norm —
188 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.5%
8.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
188 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.350
.350*
lg avg .315 ▲+.035vs his norm —
246 / 200 TBF
xERA5.10
5.10*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.00vs his norm —
246 / 200 TBF
ERA4.20
4.20*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.10vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
55.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %15.9%
norm15.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−6.1%vs his norm −5.3% ▼
246 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.9%
norm6.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm +0.3% ▲
246 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.303
.303*
lg avg .295 ▲+.008vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
188 / 800 BIP

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 15.9%→18.3%signal73 K — K% 15.9% (signal) lifted to career ~21.2% → projected 18.3% over ~91 remaining IP.
xERA 5.10signal4.75 ERA — xERA 5.10 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 56 IP.
BB% 6.9% + contactsignal1.37 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.297 gives a 1.41 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role5-11 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop73 K ROS, 4.75 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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