MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 27, 2026
week 27
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL

Aaron Civale

CHC·P
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
flipped from SELL on September 27, 2026
Hold · leans sell skill near league average (4.35); a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60
ROSK 0ERA 4.26WHIP 1.37W 0–0SV 0

Civale is a hold — no edge, no warning

His expected ERA is 4.35, essentially league average, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. Everything underneath it says the same thing: a .320 expected wOBA allowed against a .315 league average, hard-hit rate and barrel rate allowed right at the league mark, and a walk rate of 7.1% that is a touch better than average. None of it moves the needle far enough to sell, and none of it is being held down by a luck stat that is about to give back. His strikeout rate of 18.5% is below the 22% league average, so he does not miss bats the way you want, and that is the one thing keeping this from a stronger call. The surface and the skill agree. Hold. A 0 K / 4.26 ERA is streaming-only, fringe deep-league filler — hold only because nothing on the wire beats it.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %18.5%—−2.7% ▼vs his ~21.2% career norm
  • Walk %7.1%—+0.5% ▲vs his ~6.6% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.35)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed40.2%
40.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm —
361 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.0%
8.0%*
lg avg 8.0% 0.0%vs his norm —
361 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.320
.320*
lg avg .315 ▲+.005vs his norm —
493 / 200 TBF
xERA4.35
4.35*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.25vs his norm —
493 / 200 TBF
ERA4.20
4.20*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.10vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
111.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.5%
norm18.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.5%vs his norm −2.7% ▼
493 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.1%
norm7.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm +0.5% ▲
493 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.314
.314*
lg avg .295 ▲+.019vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
361 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.6%
9.6%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm —
493 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.1%
31.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.6%vs his norm —
493 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.5 mph
91.5 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.5 mphvs his norm —
1896 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.5%→19.3%signal0 K — K% 18.5% (signal) lifted to career ~21.2% → projected 19.3% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.35signal4.26 ERA — xERA 4.35 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 56 IP.
BB% 7.1% + contactsignal1.37 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.304 gives a 1.40 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.26 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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