MLB Daily DeltaWeek 18 · July 28, 2026
week 18
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

Aaron Civale

CHC·P
data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
Sell stable xERA 5.06 +0.96 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.84
ROSK 35ERA 4.72WHIP 1.40W 3–6SV 0

Civale is a sell — the skill is below league with no luck excuse.

His expected ERA is 5.06, nearly a full run above the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to stick. His actual ERA is not significantly lower, so there is no luck story hiding the skill. The contact he allows is worse than league average: a 45.6% hard-hit rate and 10.0% barrel rate, both above league norms. He strikes out only 17.5% of batters, well below the 22.0% league average, and his chase and swing-and-miss rates are also subpar. His xERA has been stepping upward across the sample, which is the wrong direction. This is what he is. Sell. 35 K and a 4.72 ERA make him a drop — the underlying skill fits the line.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %17.5%—−3.7% ▼vs his ~21.2% career norm
  • Walk %6.9%—+0.3% ▲vs his ~6.6% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.06 +0.96 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed45.6%
45.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+5.6%vs his norm —
270 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.0%
10.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —
270 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.344
.344*
lg avg .315 ▲+.029vs his norm —
361 / 200 TBF
xERA5.06
5.06*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.96vs his norm —
361 / 200 TBF
ERA5.35
5.35*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.25vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
79 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.5%
norm17.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.5%vs his norm −3.7% ▼
361 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.9%
norm6.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm +0.3% ▲
361 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.341
.341*
lg avg .295 ▲+.046vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
270 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.5%
9.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —
361 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.5%
30.5%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —
361 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.4 mph
91.4 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.6 mphvs his norm —
1386 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.5%→18.8%signal35 K — K% 17.5% (signal) lifted to career ~21.2% → projected 18.8% over ~46 remaining IP.
xERA 5.06signal4.72 ERA — xERA 5.06 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 56 IP.
BB% 6.9% + contactsignal1.40 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.310 gives a 1.45 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role3-6 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop35 K ROS, 4.72 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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