Rest of Season Projection
AaronCategoryCam
73K →114
4.75ERA →2.75
1.37WHIP →1.05
5–11W →6–14
0SV0
Current Season
AaronCategoryCam
39K →81
4.20ERA →1.50
1.47WHIP →0.85
5W →7
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Aaron Civale
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.10 +1.00 vs league with no luck excuse
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Cam Schlittler
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.256 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 2.75 is 0.88 above the ERA — regression coming
Aaron Civale: 74 K / 4.74 ERA. Cam Schlittler: 116 K / 2.75 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).