week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
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Cam Schlittler
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Schlittler is a sell-high — ERA is BABIP luck, not skill.
His ERA is 1.50, but the number that makes it so low is his BABIP-against: .256, well below the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 181 — that gap is luck, not skill. His expected ERA is 2.55, a full run higher than the box score, and that is the number to trust. His strikeout rate is 29.5%, his walk rate is 4.7%, and his xwOBA allowed is .255 — all excellent. The underlying talent is real, but the ERA is being flattered by unsustainable batted-ball luck. When the BABIP normalizes, runs will follow. Sell high.
Sell High
high0.95
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.256 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 2.55 is 1.05 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.2%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.8%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL181 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.4%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL181 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.255
lg avg .315 ▼−.060trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL275 / 200 TBF
xERA2.55
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.55trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL275 / 200 TBF
ERA1.50
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.60too early to trust
NOISE72 / 200 IP
Strikeout %29.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+7.5%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL275 / 70 TBF
Walk %4.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.3%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL275 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.256
lg avg .295 ▼−.039too early to trust
NOISE181 / 800 BIP