week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Cam Schlittler
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Sell High luck-free xERA 2.85 is 0.90 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.254 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 2.85WHIP 1.03W 0–0SV 0
Schlittler is a sell-high — his 1.95 ERA is BABIP luck
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %31.4%—+2.9% ▲vs his ~28.5% career norm
- Walk %6.4%—−1.2% ▼vs his ~7.6% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.254 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 2.85 is 0.90 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm —
465 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm —
465 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.262
lg avg .315 ▼−.053vs his norm —
761 / 200 TBF
xERA2.85
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.25vs his norm —
761 / 200 TBF
ERA1.95
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.15vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
193.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %31.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+9.4%vs his norm +2.9% ▲
761 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.6%vs his norm −1.2% ▼
761 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.254
lg avg .295 ▼−.041vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
465 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.3%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.3%vs his norm —
761 / 60 TBF
Chase %34.4%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.9%vs his norm —
761 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo98.0 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+4.0 mphvs his norm —
3041 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 31.4%→30.8%signal0 K — K% 31.4% (signal) tempered to career ~28.5% → projected 30.8% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 2.85signal2.85 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.85 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 6.4% + contactsignal1.03 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.271 gives a 1.03 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterstandard0 K ROS, 2.85 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.