week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Cam Schlittler
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Sell High luck-free xERA 2.98 is 0.93 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.260 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 68ERA 2.98WHIP 1.06W 4–8SV 0
Schlittler is a sell-high — BABIP noise propping his ERA.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Walk %5.3%—−2.3% ▼vs his ~7.6% career norm
- Strikeout %29.2%—+0.7% ▲vs his ~28.5% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.260 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 2.98 is 0.93 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
303 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —
303 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.270
lg avg .315 ▼−.045vs his norm —
469 / 200 TBF
xERA2.98
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.12vs his norm —
469 / 200 TBF
ERA2.05
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.05vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
118.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %29.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+7.2%vs his norm +0.7% ▲
469 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.7%vs his norm −2.3% ▼
469 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.260
lg avg .295 ▼−.035vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
303 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.4%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.4%vs his norm —
469 / 60 TBF
Chase %34.7%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.2%vs his norm —
469 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.8 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.8 mphvs his norm —
1820 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 29.2%→29.0%signal68 K — K% 29.2% (signal) tempered to career ~28.5% → projected 29.0% over ~60 remaining…
xERA 2.98signal2.98 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.98 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 5.3% + contactsignal1.06 WHIP — a 5% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.282 gives a 1.06 skill WHIP.
run support + role4-8 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterstandard68 K ROS, 2.98 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.