MLB Daily DeltaWeek 16 · July 11, 2026
Aaron Civale
ATH · P
Change to
Portrait of Jack Flaherty
Jack Flaherty
DET · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Jack Flaherty.

He projects to help you in more roto categories the rest of the way — strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP. Aaron Civale’s box score looks better right now, but the luck-stripped projection flips it.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Jack Flaherty wins 3 categories (K, ERA, WHIP); Aaron Civale wins 1 (W); SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Aaron Civale
91.3
Jack Flaherty
92.8
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Aaron Civale
9.4%
Jack Flaherty
12.0%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Aaron Civale
16.5%
Jack Flaherty
26.5%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Aaron Civale
30.9%
Jack Flaherty
28.0%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Aaron Civale
45.6%
Jack Flaherty
47.2%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Aaron Civale
9.7%
Jack Flaherty
8.0%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Aaron Civale
.348
Jack Flaherty
.321
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Aaron Civale
3.566.45
lg xERA 4.10
now 4.20
4.80
Jack Flaherty
3.566.45
lg xERA 4.10
now 5.81
4.24
WHIPlower is better
Aaron Civale
1.271.71
now 1.47
1.39
Jack Flaherty
1.271.71
now 1.61
1.37

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Aaron Civale
4085.20
now 39
47
Jack Flaherty
4085.20
now 64
72
Winshigher is better
Aaron Civale
.00011.20
now 5
48
Jack Flaherty
.00011.20
now 0
00

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
SellAaron Civale — sell.conf 0.87
Hold · leans sellJack Flaherty — hold.conf 0.60
Tweet