Jack Flaherty

Flaherty is a sell — his skill is below league and not unlucky.

His expected ERA is 4.68 — more than half a run above the league average of 4.10 — and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. His actual ERA tracks near it, so there is no luck story holding the line down. His BABIP-against is near league average and still noisy, but the xERA already accounts for that. The skill metrics confirm the issue: he allows a 47.3% hard-hit rate and a 9.3% barrel rate, both above league average and stable. His walk rate is 12.0%, well above league average, while his strikeout rate of 25.7% is above average but not enough to offset the walks and hard contact. The xERA has stepped up across the sample, not down. Sell.