MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Jack Flaherty
week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL

Jack Flaherty

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from SELL on October 26, 2026
Hold · leans sell skill near league average (4.38); a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60
ROSK 0ERA 4.28WHIP 1.36W 0–0SV 0

Flaherty is a hold — league-average and stable across the board.

His expected ERA is 4.38 against a league average of 4.10, and with 396 batters faced the sample is well past the point where that number becomes reliable. The supporting metrics all sit in the same neighborhood rather than pointing one direction. His expected wOBA allowed is .321 against .315, his strikeout rate is 26% against 22% league, and his walk rate is 10.6% against 8%. He allows hard contact at a 45.5% rate — above the 40% league mark — while barrel rate allowed is essentially flat at 8.2%. The one number moving the wrong way is his xERA, which has stepped up across the sample. Even so, that puts him just a hair above average rather than at risk of collapse. He strikes out enough to hold a roster spot and walks too many to chase. Hold. 0 K and a 4.28 ERA is streaming-only value — hold the roster spot only if the wire is bare.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %10.6%—+1.9% ▲vs his ~8.7% career norm
  • Strikeout %26.0%—−1.3% ▼vs his ~27.3% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.38)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed45.5%
45.5%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+5.5%vs his norm —
244 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.2%
8.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm —
244 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.321
.321*
lg avg .315 ▲+.006vs his norm —
396 / 200 TBF
xERA4.38
4.38*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.28vs his norm —
396 / 200 TBF
ERA4.48
4.48*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.38vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
88.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %26.0%
norm26.0%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.0%vs his norm −1.3% ▼
396 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.6%
norm10.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.6%vs his norm +1.9% ▲
396 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.303
.303*
lg avg .295 ▲+.008vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
244 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.2%
12.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.2%vs his norm —
396 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.6%
27.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.9%vs his norm —
396 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.7 mph
92.7 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.3 mphvs his norm —
1658 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 26.0%→26.4%signal0 K — K% 26.0% (signal) lifted to career ~27.3% → projected 26.4% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.38signal4.28 ERA — xERA 4.38 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 53 IP.
BB% 10.6% + contactsignal1.36 WHIP — a 11% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.297 gives a 1.39 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.28 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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