MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Jack Flaherty
week 25
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

Jack Flaherty

DET·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
ON THE 15-DAY IL
Sell stable xERA 4.41 +0.31 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.64
ROSK 15ERA 4.30WHIP 1.36W 0–0SV 0

Flaherty is a sell — the skill is below league, not unlucky.

His expected ERA is 4.41, .31 above the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. His actual results track it — his expected wOBA allowed is .323, also above league average — so there is no suppressed BABIP-against story to suggest he is pitching better than the line shows. The contact he allows is a touch too hard: a 46.2% hard-hit rate against a 40% league mark. He does miss bats, striking out 26.2% of hitters, but he gives it back with a 10.8% walk rate and a fastball sitting at 92.7 mph. His xERA is climbing, not falling. There is no rebound coming. Sell. 15 K and a 4.30 ERA rest of season make him a drag — drop him to the waiver wire now.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %10.8%—+2.1% ▲vs his ~8.7% career norm
  • Strikeout %26.2%—−1.1% ▼vs his ~27.3% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.41 +0.31 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed46.2%
46.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+6.2%vs his norm —
238 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.4%
8.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.4%vs his norm —
238 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.323
.323*
lg avg .315 ▲+.008vs his norm —
389 / 200 TBF
xERA4.41
4.41*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.31vs his norm —
389 / 200 TBF
ERA4.59
4.59*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.49vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
86.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %26.2%
norm26.2%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.2%vs his norm −1.1% ▼
389 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.8%
norm10.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.8%vs his norm +2.1% ▲
389 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.307
.307*
lg avg .295 ▲+.012vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
238 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.2%
12.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.2%vs his norm —
389 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.6%
27.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.9%vs his norm —
389 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.7 mph
92.7 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.3 mphvs his norm —
1639 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 26.2%→26.6%signal15 K — K% 26.2% (signal) lifted to career ~27.3% → projected 26.6% over ~12 remaining IP.
xERA 4.41signal4.30 ERA — xERA 4.41 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 53 IP.
BB% 10.8% + contactsignal1.36 WHIP — a 11% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.299 gives a 1.40 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop15 K ROS, 4.30 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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