week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL
Jack Flaherty
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from SELL on July 18, 2026
Hold · leans sell skill near league average (4.30); a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 65ERA 4.23WHIP 1.36W 0–0SV 0
Flaherty is a hold — league average, nothing to trade on.
ROS projects K 64 YTD → 65 ROS, ERA 5.81 YTD → 4.23 ROS, WHIP 1.61 YTD → 1.36 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Walk %10.8%—+2.1% ▲vs his ~8.7% career norm
- Strikeout %26.4%—−0.9% ▼vs his ~27.3% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.30)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed47.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+7.3%vs his norm —
226 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.4%vs his norm —
226 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.321
lg avg .315 ▲+.006vs his norm —
371 / 200 TBF
xERA4.30
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.20vs his norm —
371 / 200 TBF
ERA4.48
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.38vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
82.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %26.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.4%vs his norm −0.9% ▼
371 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.8%vs his norm +2.1% ▲
371 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.312
lg avg .295 ▲+.017vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
226 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.3%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.4%vs his norm —
371 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.1%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
371 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.8 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.2 mphvs his norm —
1557 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 26.4%→26.7%signal65 K — K% 26.4% (signal) lifted to career ~27.3% → projected 26.7% over ~53 remaining IP.
xERA 4.30signal4.23 ERA — xERA 4.30 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 53 IP.
BB% 10.8% + contactsignal1.36 WHIP — a 11% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.300 gives a 1.40 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop65 K ROS, 4.23 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.