Rest of Season Projection
AaronCategoryGrant
73K →91
4.75ERA →4.43
1.37WHIP1.37
5–11W ←3–7
0SV0
Current Season
AaronCategoryGrant
39K →53
4.20ERA →3.95
1.47WHIP →1.33
5W ←3
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Aaron Civale
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.10 +1.00 vs league with no luck excuse
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Grant Holmes
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.255 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.61 is 0.56 above the ERA — regression coming
Aaron Civale: 73 K / 4.75 ERA. Grant Holmes: 91 K / 4.43 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).