MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Grant Holmes
week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Grant Holmes

ATL·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Sell High luck-free xERA 4.72 is 1.26 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.257 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95
ROSK 12ERA 4.50WHIP 1.36W 0–1SV 0

Holmes is a sell-high — his ERA is BABIP luck, not skill.

His ERA looks like a frontline starter's, but the number holding it down is his BABIP-against: .257, well below the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 413. That gap is luck, not pitching. Strip it out and his expected ERA is 4.72 — 1.26 runs above the ERA, and it has been climbing across the sample. Nothing in the skill metrics argues otherwise: he allows hard contact at 44.6% and barrels at 8.5%, both above league, his xwOBA allowed is .333, and he strikes out just 18.9% of batters. The profile says average arm; the surface says better. Sell high. 12 K and a 4.50 ERA ROS make him streaming-only — move now, before that trade window shuts.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %18.9%—−5.3% ▼vs his ~24.2% career norm
  • Walk %9.8%—+0.6% ▲vs his ~9.2% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.257 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.72 is 1.26 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed44.6%
44.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.6%vs his norm —
413 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.5%
8.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
413 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.333
.333*
lg avg .315 ▲+.018vs his norm —
583 / 200 TBF
xERA4.72
4.72*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.62vs his norm —
583 / 200 TBF
ERA3.46
3.46*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.64vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
137.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.9%
norm18.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.1%vs his norm −5.3% ▼
583 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.8%
norm9.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.8%vs his norm +0.6% ▲
583 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.257
.257*
lg avg .295 ▼−.038vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
413 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.4%
13.4%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.4%vs his norm —
583 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.2%
31.2%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.7%vs his norm —
583 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.2 mph
94.2 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.2 mphvs his norm —
2170 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.9%→20.2%signal12 K — K% 18.9% (signal) lifted to career ~24.2% → projected 20.2% over ~12 remaining IP.
xERA 4.72signal4.50 ERA — xERA 4.72 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 57 IP.
BB% 9.8% + contactsignal1.36 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.275 gives a 1.39 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop12 K ROS, 4.50 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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