MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Grant Holmes
week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Grant Holmes

ATL·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Sell High luck-free xERA 5.05 is 1.61 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.260 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95
ROSK 0ERA 4.72WHIP 1.36W 0–0SV 0

Holmes is a sell-high — his 3.44 ERA is hiding a 5.05 expected ERA.

His ERA reads 3.44, but the expected ERA behind it is 5.05 — a run and a half worse than what the scoreboard shows. The stat holding that ERA down is his BABIP-against: .260 against a league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable and he has 462, so the gap is luck, not skill. The underlying numbers back the regression. He allows a .342 expected wOBA, well above the .315 league average, and a 45.2% hard-hit rate that is also above league. His strikeout rate is 17.9%, well below the 22.0% league mark, and his walk rate is 9.7%, also worse. There is no swing-and-miss story to fall back on when the bounces stop cooperating, and the expected ERA has been climbing. Sell high. The ROS line of 0 K and 4.72 ERA confirms a sell-high trade window before regression; a drop, streaming-only arm.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %17.9%—−6.3% ▼vs his ~24.2% career norm
  • Walk %9.7%—+0.5% ▲vs his ~9.2% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.260 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 5.05 is 1.61 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed45.2%
45.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+5.2%vs his norm —
462 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.9%
8.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
462 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.342
.342*
lg avg .315 ▲+.027vs his norm —
642 / 200 TBF
xERA5.05
5.05*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.95vs his norm —
642 / 200 TBF
ERA3.44
3.44*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.66vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
151.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.9%
norm17.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.1%vs his norm −6.3% ▼
642 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.7%
norm9.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.7%vs his norm +0.5% ▲
642 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.260
.260*
lg avg .295 ▼−.035vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
462 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.3%
13.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.3%vs his norm —
642 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.8%
31.8%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.3%vs his norm —
642 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.2 mph
94.2 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.2 mphvs his norm —
2382 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.9%→19.4%signal0 K — K% 17.9% (signal) lifted to career ~24.2% → projected 19.4% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 5.05signal4.72 ERA — xERA 5.05 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 57 IP.
BB% 9.7% + contactsignal1.36 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.275 gives a 1.40 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.72 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups