week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Grant Holmes
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Sell High luck-free xERA 4.55 is 0.94 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.251 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 55ERA 4.39WHIP 1.38W 2–4SV 0
Holmes is a sell-high — ERA is running on empty.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %20.2%—−4.0% ▼vs his ~24.2% career norm
- Walk %10.4%—+1.2% ▲vs his ~9.2% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.251 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.55 is 0.94 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed43.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.4%vs his norm —
258 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
258 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.329
lg avg .315 ▲+.014vs his norm —
376 / 200 TBF
xERA4.55
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.45vs his norm —
376 / 200 TBF
ERA3.61
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.49vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
87.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.8%vs his norm −4.0% ▼
376 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.4%vs his norm +1.2% ▲
376 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.251
lg avg .295 ▼−.044vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
258 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.9%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.9%vs his norm —
376 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.5%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.0%vs his norm —
376 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.2 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.2 mphvs his norm —
1429 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 20.2%→21.6%signal55 K — K% 20.2% (signal) lifted to career ~24.2% → projected 21.6% over ~55 remaining IP.
xERA 4.55signal4.39 ERA — xERA 4.55 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 57 IP.
BB% 10.4% + contactsignal1.38 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.281 gives a 1.42 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role2-4 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop55 K ROS, 4.39 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.