week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
————————
Grant Holmes
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Holmes is a sell-high — BABIP luck is lifting his ERA.
His ERA sits at 3.95, but the number keeping runs off the board is his BABIP-against: .258, 37 points below league average. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable; he has 166. That gap is luck, not skill. His expected ERA is 4.31, almost half a run higher, and his xERA trajectory has been stepping up as the season progresses — further evidence the surface ERA is not sustainable. He allows a 44.6% hard-hit rate and a 9.6% barrel rate, both above league average, and his walk rate (10.2%) is elevated. There is no elite-stuff story to fall back on when the BABIP normalizes. Sell high.
Sell High
high0.79
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.258 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.31 is 0.36 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed44.6%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.6%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL166 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.6%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL166 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.327
lg avg .315 ▲+.012trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL244 / 200 TBF
xERA4.31
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.21trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL244 / 200 TBF
ERA3.95
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.15too early to trust
NOISE57 / 200 IP
Strikeout %21.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.3%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL244 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.2%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL244 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.258
lg avg .295 ▼−.037too early to trust
NOISE166 / 800 BIP