Rest of Season Projection
GrantCategoryMatt
91K ←67
4.43ERA →4.09
1.37WHIP →1.30
3–7W ←2–4
0SV0
Current Season
GrantCategoryMatt
53K ←22
3.95ERA ←8.49
1.33WHIP ←1.71
3W ←1
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Grant Holmes
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.255 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.61 is 0.56 above the ERA — regression coming
Matt Waldron
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.78 sits 0.32 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.384 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Holmes projects for 93 K vs Waldron's 68 K, but trails in ERA (4.43 vs 4.09). The sell-high call on Holmes and buy-dip on Waldron reflect the surface-versus-skill spread.