Rest of Season Projection
GrantCategoryTyler
89K →91
4.44ERA →4.07
1.37WHIP ←1.38
3–7W ←1–2
0SV0
Current Season
GrantCategoryTyler
53K →57
3.95ERA ←6.04
1.33WHIP ←1.54
3W ←1
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Grant Holmes
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.255 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.63 is 0.58 above the ERA — regression coming
Tyler Mahle
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.07 sits 0.03 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.335 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Grant Holmes: 89 K / 4.44 ERA. Tyler Mahle: 91 K / 4.07 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).