Rest of Season Projection
MitchCategoryTyler
80K →94
4.66ERA →4.05
1.38WHIP1.38
5–10W ←1–2
0SV0
Current Season
MitchCategoryTyler
51K →57
4.35ERA ←6.04
1.17WHIP ←1.54
5W ←1
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Mitch Keller
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.96 +0.86 vs league with no luck excuse
Tyler Mahle
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.05 sits 0.05 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.335 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Mitch Keller: 80 K / 4.66 ERA. Tyler Mahle: 94 K / 4.05 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).