Rest of Season Projection
ColinCategoryTyler
79K →94
5.23ERA →4.05
1.39WHIP →1.38
5–11W ←1–2
0SV0
Current Season
ColinCategoryTyler
49K →57
4.70ERA ←6.04
1.37WHIP ←1.54
5W ←1
1SV ←0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Colin Rea
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.84 +1.74 vs league with no luck excuse
Tyler Mahle
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.05 sits 0.05 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.335 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Colin Rea: 80 K / 5.22 ERA. Tyler Mahle: 95 K / 4.04 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).