Is Colin Rea a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell — metrics are consistently below average with signal behind the decline.

What is Colin Rea's rest-of-season outlook?

xERA 5.54 hiding behind a 4.50 ERA — 17% K rate.

week 25

this weekSELL

last weekSELL

Colin Rea

CHC·P

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25

Sell stable xERA 5.54 +1.44 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.90

ROSK 10ERA 5.04WHIP 1.37W 1–1SV 0

Rea is a sell — the contact he allows is below league and getting worse.

His expected ERA is 5.54, a run and a half above the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. The rest of the profile backs it up rather than excusing it. He allows a 42% hard-hit rate and a 10.5% barrel rate, both above league, on a sample of batted balls well past the point where contact quality settles. He strikes out only 17.3% of batters against a 22% league average, and his swinging-strike rate of 9.2% is below league too, so there is no hidden strikeout pitch coming to bail him out. His xERA has been stepping up across the sample. There is no luck story to fall back on; this is the level he is at. Sell. With 10 K, 5.04 ERA and 1.37 WHIP ROS, Rea is a drop — streaming-only fringe, not worth a bench hold.

VS His Norm

Strikeout %17.3%—−1.9% ▼vs his ~19.2% career norm
Walk %8.2%—+1.0% ▲vs his ~7.2% career norm

Drivers

xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.54 +1.44 vs league with no luck excuse

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Hard-Hit % Allowed42.0%

lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —

419 / 50 BBE

Barrel % Allowed10.5%

lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —

419 / 60 BBE

xwOBA Allowed.357

lg avg .315 ▲+.042vs his norm —

572 / 200 TBF

xERA5.54

lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.44vs his norm —

572 / 200 TBF

ERA4.50

lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.40vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.

132 / 200 IP

Strikeout %17.3%

lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.7%vs his norm −1.9% ▼

572 / 70 TBF

Walk %8.2%

lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm +1.0% ▲

572 / 170 TBF

BABIP Against.286

lg avg .295 ▼−.009vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.

419 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %9.2%

lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.8%vs his norm —

572 / 60 TBF

Chase %30.0%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.5%vs his norm —

572 / 60 TBF

Fastball Velo93.8 mph

lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.2 mphvs his norm —

2170 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

K% 17.3%→17.8%signal10 K — K% 17.3% (signal) lifted to career ~19.2% → projected 17.8% over ~12 remaining IP.

xERA 5.54signal5.04 ERA — xERA 5.54 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 59 IP.

BB% 8.2% + contactsignal1.37 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.290 gives a 1.41 skill WHIP, blended 65…

run support + role1-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.

role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.

rosterdrop10 K ROS, 5.04 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons