MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Colin Rea
week 17
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

Colin Rea

CHC·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Sell stable xERA 5.70 +1.60 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.90
ROSK 48ERA 5.14WHIP 1.41W 3–7SV 0

Rea is a sell — his skill is below league with no luck excuse.

His expected ERA sits at 5.70 — a full 1.60 runs above the league average of 4.10 — and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. His BABIP-against is near league average, so the ERA is not hiding any bad luck: the skill is simply below average. He allows more hard contact than league average (41.1% vs. 40.0%), more barrels (10.5% vs. 8.0%), and his strikeout rate is 16.8%, well below the 22.0% mark. The xERA has stepped up across the sample, meaning the trend is getting worse, not better. There is no luck story to fall back on; this is the level he is at. Sell. 48 K and a 5.14 ERA make him a streaming-only arm in deep leagues; there is no reason to hold.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %16.8%—−2.4% ▼vs his ~19.2% career norm
  • Walk %8.6%—+1.4% ▲vs his ~7.2% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.70 +1.60 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.1%
41.1%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —
304 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.5%
10.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —
304 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.363
.363*
lg avg .315 ▲+.048vs his norm —
417 / 200 TBF
xERA5.70
5.70*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.60vs his norm —
417 / 200 TBF
ERA4.75
4.75*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.65vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
94.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %16.8%
norm16.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.2%vs his norm −2.4% ▼
417 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.6%
norm8.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.6%vs his norm +1.4% ▲
417 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.303
.303*
lg avg .295 ▲+.008vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
304 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.6%
9.6%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm —
417 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.1%
31.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.6%vs his norm —
417 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.8 mph
93.8 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.2 mphvs his norm —
1579 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 16.8%→17.6%signal48 K — K% 16.8% (signal) lifted to career ~19.2% → projected 17.6% over ~55 remaining IP.
xERA 5.70signal5.14 ERA — xERA 5.70 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 59 IP.
BB% 8.6% + contactsignal1.41 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.298 gives a 1.48 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role3-7 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop48 K ROS, 5.14 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups