week 10
this weekSELL
last weekSELL
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Colin Rea
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Rea is a sell — his skill is below league with no luck excuse.
His expected ERA is 5.13, a full run above the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. His actual ERA tracks near it, so there is no bad-luck story driving the line down. The contact he allows is hard: a 44.3% hard-hit rate (4.3 points above league) and an 11.9% barrel rate (3.9 points above league), both well past their stabilization points. His strikeout rate is 19.1%, below league average, and his walk rate is near average, so there is no swing-and-miss safety net. The trend is telling: his xERA has been stepping up across the sample, not stabilizing. This is the pitcher he is. Sell.
Sell
high0.86
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.13 +1.03 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed44.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.3%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL185 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed11.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.9%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL185 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.353
lg avg .315 ▲+.038trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL257 / 200 TBF
xERA5.13
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.03trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL257 / 200 TBF
ERA4.70
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.60too early to trust
NOISE59.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %19.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.9%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL257 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.2%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL257 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.297
lg avg .295 ▲+.002too early to trust
NOISE185 / 800 BIP