Colin Rea
Rea is a sell — behind the xERA, the skill is thin
His expected ERA sits at 5.37, a full 1.27 runs above the league average of 4.1, and he has faced 587 batters — well past the point where that number becomes reliable. This is not a pitcher being dragged down by batted-ball luck; the profile underneath confirms the surface. He strikes out just 17.2% of hitters against a league average of 22%, and his swinging-strike rate of 9.3% trails the 11% mark, so there is no missing-bats foundation to build on. He allows a .351 expected wOBA and a 10.2% barrel rate, both worse than league. The trajectory is the part that stings: his expected ERA has been stepping up across the sample. Nothing here is unlucky, and that is the problem — the level is the level. Sell. 0 K and a 4.93 ERA is waiver-wire fodder — drop him and stream the spot instead.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %17.2%—−2.0% ▼vs his ~19.2% career norm
- Walk %8.0%—+0.8% ▲vs his ~7.2% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.37 +1.27 vs league with no luck excuse
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.