Rest of Season Projection
EricCategoryTyler
69K →94
4.82ERA →4.05
1.35WHIP ←1.38
3–5W ←1–2
0SV0
Current Season
EricCategoryTyler
30K →57
5.95ERA ←6.04
1.39WHIP ←1.54
2W ←1
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Eric Lauer
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.20 +1.10 vs league with no luck excuse
Tyler Mahle
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.05 sits 0.05 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.335 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Eric Lauer: 70 K / 4.81 ERA. Tyler Mahle: 95 K / 4.04 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).