week 17
this weekSELL
last weekHOLD
Eric Lauer
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026
Sell stable xERA 4.93 +0.83 vs league with no luck excuse; strikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling; move on.high 0.80 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 43ERA 4.64WHIP 1.36W 2–3SV 0
Lauer is a sell — skill below league with no luck excuse.
Stable skill below league and not unlucky. Sell.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %14.5%—−7.4% ▼vs his ~21.9% career norm
- Walk %8.3%—−0.3% ▼vs his ~8.6% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.93 +0.83 vs league with no luck excuse
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.5%vs his norm —
248 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.9%vs his norm —
248 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.341
lg avg .315 ▲+.026vs his norm —
325 / 200 TBF
xERA4.93
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.83vs his norm —
325 / 200 TBF
ERA4.81
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.71vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
76.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %14.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−7.5%vs his norm −7.4% ▼
325 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm −0.3% ▼
325 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.232
lg avg .295 ▼−.063vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
248 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.4%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.6%vs his norm —
325 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.7%vs his norm —
325 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo90.9 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−3.1 mphvs his norm —
1228 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 14.5%→17.3%signal43 K — K% 14.5% (signal) lifted to career ~21.9% → projected 17.3% over ~51 remaining IP.
xERA 4.93signal4.64 ERA — xERA 4.93 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 42 IP.
BB% 8.3% + contactsignal1.36 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.276 gives a 1.40 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role2-3 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop43 K ROS, 4.64 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.