MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Eric Lauer
week 31
this weekSELL
last weekHOLD

Eric Lauer

LAD·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
ON THE 60-DAY IL
flipped from HOLD
Sell stable xERA 5.05 +0.95 vs league with no luck excuse; strikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling; move on.high 0.83
ROSK 0ERA 4.72WHIP 1.33W 0–0SV 0

Lauer is a sell — his expected ERA is a run above league.

His expected ERA is 5.05, a full run above the league average of 4.10, and he has faced 466 batters — well past the 200 where that number becomes reliable. This is not a case of bad luck dressed up as bad pitching. His strikeout rate is 15.5%, down from a 21.9% career baseline and roughly six and a half points below league, and that decline has been steady across the sample. He is walking 7.5% of batters, right at league, so nothing in the profile offsets the missing swings — his swinging-strike rate is 9.7%, below league, and his fastball averages 91.1 mph against a 94.0 league mark. The contact he allows backs the xERA up: a .342 expected wOBA allowed and 11% barrels, both worse than league. The expected ERA has climbed as the season has gone, not settled. Sell. 0 K and a 4.72 ERA make him streaming-only at best — a waiver-wire drop, not a hold.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %15.5%—−6.4% ▼vs his ~21.9% career norm
  • Walk %7.5%—−1.1% ▼vs his ~8.6% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.05 +0.95 vs league with no luck excuse
  • p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.0%
36.0%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.0%vs his norm —
353 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed11.0%
11.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.0%vs his norm —
353 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.342
.342*
lg avg .315 ▲+.027vs his norm —
466 / 200 TBF
xERA5.05
5.05*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.95vs his norm —
466 / 200 TBF
ERA5.23
5.23*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.13vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
108.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %15.5%
norm15.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−6.5%vs his norm −6.4% ▼
466 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.5%
norm7.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm −1.1% ▼
466 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.250
.250*
lg avg .295 ▼−.045vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
353 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.7%
9.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm —
466 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.1%
33.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.6%vs his norm —
466 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.1 mph
91.1 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.9 mphvs his norm —
1814 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 15.5%→17.4%signal0 K — K% 15.5% (signal) lifted to career ~21.9% → projected 17.4% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 5.05signal4.72 ERA — xERA 5.05 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 42 IP.
BB% 7.5% + contactsignal1.33 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.275 gives a 1.34 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.72 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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