MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Eric Lauer
week 25
this weekSELL
last weekHOLD

Eric Lauer

LAD·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
ON THE 15-DAY IL
flipped from HOLD
Sell stable xERA 5.01 +0.91 vs league with no luck excuse; strikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling; move on.high 0.82
ROSK 9ERA 4.69WHIP 1.33W 0–1SV 0

Lauer is a sell — the strikeouts are gone and the ERA is honest.

His expected ERA is 5.01, nearly a full run above the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. Nothing is propping the surface line up or dragging it down — his walk rate is 7.5%, right at league average, so there is no bad-luck story to hide behind. The problem is the strikeouts. He is punching out 15.5% of batters, well below the 22% league average and below his own 21.9% career baseline, and that rate has been dropping across the sample. A swinging-strike rate of 9.7% and a fastball at 91.1 mph do not suggest that turns around. He is not getting unlucky; the skill simply is not there. Sell. 9 K and a 4.69 ERA ROS is waiver-wire filler — drop him and stream the spot.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %15.5%—−6.4% ▼vs his ~21.9% career norm
  • Walk %7.5%—−1.1% ▼vs his ~8.6% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.01 +0.91 vs league with no luck excuse
  • p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.0%
36.0%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.0%vs his norm —
353 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed11.0%
11.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.0%vs his norm —
353 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.342
.342*
lg avg .315 ▲+.027vs his norm —
466 / 200 TBF
xERA5.01
5.01*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.91vs his norm —
466 / 200 TBF
ERA5.23
5.23*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.13vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
108.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %15.5%
norm15.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−6.5%vs his norm −6.4% ▼
466 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.5%
norm7.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm −1.1% ▼
466 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.250
.250*
lg avg .295 ▼−.045vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
353 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.7%
9.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm —
466 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.1%
33.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.6%vs his norm —
466 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.1 mph
91.1 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.9 mphvs his norm —
1814 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 15.5%→17.4%signal9 K — K% 15.5% (signal) lifted to career ~21.9% → projected 17.4% over ~12 remaining IP.
xERA 5.01signal4.69 ERA — xERA 5.01 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 42 IP.
BB% 7.5% + contactsignal1.33 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.275 gives a 1.34 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop9 K ROS, 4.69 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups