Rest of Season Projection
EricCategoryMatt
69K ←67
4.82ERA →4.09
1.35WHIP →1.30
3–5W ←2–4
0SV0
Current Season
EricCategoryMatt
30K ←22
5.95ERA ←8.49
1.39WHIP ←1.71
2W ←1
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Eric Lauer
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.20 +1.10 vs league with no luck excuse
Matt Waldron
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.78 sits 0.32 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.384 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Eric Lauer: 70 K / 4.81 ERA. Matt Waldron: 68 K / 4.09 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).