Rest of Season Projection
EricCategoryJacob
81K →163
4.96ERA →2.19
1.40WHIP →0.98
3–6W →6–13
0SV0
Current Season
EricCategoryJacob
30K →108
5.95ERA →1.65
1.39WHIP →0.79
2W →6
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Eric Lauer
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.42 +1.32 vs league with no luck excuse
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Jacob Misiorowski
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.243 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 2.19 is 0.54 above the ERA — regression coming
Eric Lauer: 81 K / 4.96 ERA. Jacob Misiorowski: 163 K / 2.19 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).