Who's more valuable, rest of season
Tyler Mahle.
He projects to help you in more roto categories the rest of the way — strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP. Aaron Civale’s box score looks better right now, but the luck-stripped projection flips it.
Head-to-head
K
▶
ERA
▶
WHIP
▶
◀
W
SV n/a
Tyler Mahle wins 3 categories (K, ERA, WHIP); Aaron Civale wins 1 (W); SV n/a.
04
Under the hood
Underlying skill — each value vs league avgFastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Aaron Civale
91.4
Tyler Mahle
92.5
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Aaron Civale
9.5%
Tyler Mahle
9.7%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Aaron Civale
17.5%
Tyler Mahle
21.4%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Aaron Civale
30.5%
Tyler Mahle
29.0%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Aaron Civale
45.6%
Tyler Mahle
35.9%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Aaron Civale
10.0%
Tyler Mahle
7.3%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Aaron Civale
.344
Tyler Mahle
.318
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05
The tape
Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Aaron Civale
3.456.78
lg xERA 4.10
now 4.20
4.72
Tyler Mahle
3.456.78
lg xERA 4.10
now 6.04
4.19
WHIPlower is better
Aaron Civale
1.321.61
now 1.47
1.40
Tyler Mahle
1.321.61
now 1.54
1.39
Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Aaron Civale
4065.80
now 39
35
Tyler Mahle
4065.80
now 57
49
Winshigher is better
Aaron Civale
.0008
now 5
3–6
Tyler Mahle
.0008
now 1
1–1
SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.
If you already own them — trade angle
SellAaron Civale — sell.conf 0.84
Buy LowTyler Mahle — buy low. The dip is a window to acquire.conf 0.90