Rest of Season Projection
AaronCategoryTyler
73K →94
4.75ERA →4.05
1.37WHIP ←1.38
5–11W ←1–2
0SV0
Current Season
AaronCategoryTyler
39K →57
4.20ERA ←6.04
1.47WHIP ←1.54
5W ←1
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Aaron Civale
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.10 +1.00 vs league with no luck excuse
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Tyler Mahle
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.05 sits 0.05 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.335 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Mahle's 94 K outperform Civale's 73, and his 4.05 ERA is over a half-run better. The verdicts split: buy Mahle, sell Civale.