Rest of Season Projection
CarmenCategoryTyler
78K →94
4.70ERA →4.05
1.39WHIP →1.38
4–9W ←1–2
0SV0
Current Season
CarmenCategoryTyler
46K →57
3.76ERA ←6.04
1.42WHIP ←1.54
4W ←1
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Carmen Mlodzinski
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.03 +0.93 vs league with no luck excuse
Tyler Mahle
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.05 sits 0.05 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.335 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Carmen Mlodzinski: 80 K / 4.70 ERA. Tyler Mahle: 95 K / 4.04 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).