week 17
this weekSELL
last weekSELL
Carmen Mlodzinski
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Sell stable xERA 4.80 +0.70 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.76 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 48ERA 4.55WHIP 1.38W 3–6SV 0
Mlodzinski is a sell — skill below league, no bad luck to blame.
Stable skill below league and not unlucky. Sell.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %18.4%—−2.7% ▼vs his ~21.1% career norm
- Walk %8.0%—−0.3% ▼vs his ~8.3% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.80 +0.70 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed46.2%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+6.2%vs his norm —
253 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm —
253 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.337
lg avg .315 ▲+.022vs his norm —
348 / 200 TBF
xERA4.80
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.70vs his norm —
348 / 200 TBF
ERA3.24
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.86vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
80.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.6%vs his norm −2.7% ▼
348 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.0%
lg avg 8.0% 0.0%vs his norm −0.3% ▼
348 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.308
lg avg .295 ▲+.013vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
253 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —
348 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.7%vs his norm —
348 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.0 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.0 mphvs his norm —
1372 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.4%→19.4%signal48 K — K% 18.4% (signal) lifted to career ~21.1% → projected 19.4% over ~55 remaining IP.
xERA 4.80signal4.55 ERA — xERA 4.80 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 55 IP.
BB% 8.0% + contactsignal1.38 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.299 gives a 1.42 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role3-6 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop48 K ROS, 4.55 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.