MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Carmen Mlodzinski
week 25
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

Carmen Mlodzinski

PIT·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Sell stable xERA 5.01 +0.91 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.82
ROSK 11ERA 4.69WHIP 1.38W 1–1SV 0

Mlodzinski is a sell — the expected ERA says the skill is not there.

His expected ERA is 5.01 — .91 above the league average of 4.10 — and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. Nothing is dragging it up by bad luck either: his walk rate is 7.5%, right at league average, so there is no command problem to excuse the contact he allows. The contact is the issue. His xwOBA allowed is .342 against a league average of .315, his hard-hit rate allowed is 46.8%, and his strikeout rate is 18.1% — nearly four points below league. He has the fastball velocity, but the results that matter all point the same way, and the expected ERA has been climbing across the sample. There is no correction coming. Sell. 11 K and a 4.69 ERA is streaming-only waiver filler — drop him before the fade costs you a roster spot.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %18.1%—−3.0% ▼vs his ~21.1% career norm
  • Walk %7.5%—−0.8% ▼vs his ~8.3% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.01 +0.91 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed46.8%
46.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+6.8%vs his norm —
363 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.2%
7.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
363 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.342
.342*
lg avg .315 ▲+.027vs his norm —
493 / 200 TBF
xERA5.01
5.01*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.91vs his norm —
493 / 200 TBF
ERA3.90
3.90*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.20vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
113 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.1%
norm18.1%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.9%vs his norm −3.0% ▼
493 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.5%
norm7.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm −0.8% ▼
493 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.311
.311*
lg avg .295 ▲+.016vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
363 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.6%
9.6%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm —
493 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.6%
29.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —
493 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.1 mph
95.1 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.1 mphvs his norm —
1910 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.1%→19.0%signal11 K — K% 18.1% (signal) lifted to career ~21.1% → projected 19.0% over ~12 remaining IP.
xERA 5.01signal4.69 ERA — xERA 5.01 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 55 IP.
BB% 7.5% + contactsignal1.38 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.302 gives a 1.42 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role1-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop11 K ROS, 4.69 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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