MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Carmen Mlodzinski
week 31
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

Carmen Mlodzinski

PIT·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Sell stable xERA 4.89 +0.79 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.79
ROSK 0ERA 4.61WHIP 1.39W 0–0SV 0

Mlodzinski is a sell — the contact he allows is the problem.

His xERA is 4.89, .79 above the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be trusted. The skill metrics underneath point the same direction: he allows a .337 expected wOBA against a .315 league average, and a 46.5% hard-hit rate against 40.0% league. His strikeout rate is 18.1% against a 22.0% league average, so he is not missing bats enough to cover for all that hard contact. His swinging-strike rate of 9.4% sits below the 11.0% league mark. His walk rate, 8.2%, is right at league average — there is no hidden control story to lean on. And his xERA has been climbing across the sample rather than settling down. There is no luck to excuse this. Sell. 0 K and 4.61 ERA the rest of the way — waiver-wire fodder, so cut him and stream the spot instead.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %18.1%—−3.0% ▼vs his ~21.1% career norm
  • Walk %8.2%—−0.1% ▼vs his ~8.3% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.89 +0.79 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed46.5%
46.5%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+6.5%vs his norm —
391 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.9%
6.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
391 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.337
.337*
lg avg .315 ▲+.022vs his norm —
537 / 200 TBF
xERA4.89
4.89*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.79vs his norm —
537 / 200 TBF
ERA3.95
3.95*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.15vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
123 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.1%
norm18.1%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.9%vs his norm −3.0% ▼
537 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.2%
norm8.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm −0.1% ▼
537 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.302
.302*
lg avg .295 ▲+.007vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
391 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.4%
9.4%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.6%vs his norm —
537 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.7%
28.7%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.2%vs his norm —
537 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.0 mph
95.0 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.0 mphvs his norm —
2080 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.1%→18.9%signal0 K — K% 18.1% (signal) lifted to career ~21.1% → projected 18.9% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.89signal4.61 ERA — xERA 4.89 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 55 IP.
BB% 8.2% + contactsignal1.39 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.298 gives a 1.44 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.61 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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