Rest of Season Projection
CarmenCategoryMatt
78K ←67
4.70ERA →4.09
1.39WHIP →1.30
4–9W ←2–4
0SV0
Current Season
CarmenCategoryMatt
46K ←22
3.76ERA ←8.49
1.42WHIP ←1.71
4W ←1
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Carmen Mlodzinski
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.03 +0.93 vs league with no luck excuse
Matt Waldron
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.78 sits 0.32 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.384 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Carmen Mlodzinski: 80 K / 4.70 ERA. Matt Waldron: 68 K / 4.09 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).