week 18
this weekHOLD
last weekBUY-LOW
Matt Waldron
data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
flipped from BUY-LOW on July 28, 2026
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.90); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 37ERA 4.09WHIP 1.30W 1–2SV 0
Waldron is a hold — league average with no signal to act on.
ROS projects K 22 YTD → 37 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %19.0%—−1.3% ▼vs his ~20.3% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.90)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed40.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.4%vs his norm —
109 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.6%vs his norm —
109 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.306
lg avg .315 ▼−.009vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
147 / 200 TBF
xERA3.90
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.20vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
147 / 200 TBF
ERA7.16
lg avg 4.10 ▲+3.06vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
32.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %19.0%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.0%vs his norm −1.3% ▼
147 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.6%vs his norm −1.6% ▼Walk % is below his ~7.0% norm — expect it to rise.
147 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.356
lg avg .295 ▲+.061vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
109 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.5%vs his norm —
147 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.0%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.5%vs his norm —
147 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.0 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.0 mphvs his norm —
541 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 19.0%→19.7%signal37 K — K% 19.0% (signal) lifted to career ~20.3% → projected 19.7% over ~37 remaining IP.
xERA 3.90noise4.09 ERA — xERA 3.90 (noise) blended 3% skill / 97% league 4.10 at 23 IP.
BB% 5.4% + contactnoise1.30 WHIP — a 5% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.303 gives a 1.32 skill WHIP, blended 3%…
run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop37 K ROS, 4.09 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.