MLB Daily DeltaWeek 12 · June 13, 2026
week 12
this weekBUY-LOW
last week—

Matt Waldron

SD·P
data as of June 13, 2026·week 12
ON THE 15-DAY IL
Buy Low luck-free xERA 3.78 sits 0.32 below league, a real arm the ERA is hiding; BABIP-against 0.384 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.90
ROSK 67ERA 4.09WHIP 1.30W 2–4SV 0

Waldron is a buy-low — his ERA is BABIP noise.

His ERA is 8.49, but the number doing the damage is his BABIP-against: .384, 89 points above the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 79 — that gap is luck, not skill. Strip out the noise and his expected ERA is 3.78, nearly five runs lower than what the box score shows. Limited data: this call rests on the first stable sample of the season, but his contact quality metrics are near league average, with a hard-hit rate allowed of 39.2% versus league average of 40.0% and a barrel rate allowed of 7.6% versus 8.0%, both stabilized. He strikes out 20.0% of batters, close to league average. The surface is ugly; the skill underneath is not. Buy low.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %20.0%—−0.3% ▼vs his ~20.3% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.78 sits 0.32 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.384 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.2%
39.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
79 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.6%
7.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
79 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.306
.306*
lg avg .315 ▼−.009vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
110 / 200 TBF
xERA3.78
3.78*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.32vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
110 / 200 TBF
ERA8.49
8.49*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+4.39vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
23.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.0%
norm20.0%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.0%vs his norm −0.3% ▼
110 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.4%
norm6.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.6%vs his norm −0.6% ▼Walk % is below his ~7.0% norm — expect it to rise.
110 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.384
.384*
lg avg .295 ▲+.089vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
79 / 800 BIP

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 20.0%→20.2%signal67 K — K% 20.0% (signal) held to career ~20.3% → projected 20.2% over ~70 remaining IP.
xERA 3.78noise4.09 ERA — xERA 3.78 (noise) blended 3% skill / 97% league 4.10 at 23 IP.
BB% 6.4% + contactnoise1.30 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.304 gives a 1.35 skill WHIP, blended 3%…
run support + role2-4 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop67 K ROS, 4.09 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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