week 27
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY-LOW
Matt Waldron
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Buy Low fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — luck-free xERA 3.54 sits 0.56 below league, a real arm the ERA is hiding; BABIP-against 0.357 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.90 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0WHIP 1.30ERA 4.08W 0–0SV 0
Waldron is a buy-low — his ERA is BABIP noise, not his arm.
ERA ugly, but the skill it regresses to is league-or-better and the BABIP-against is unsustainable. Buy low.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %17.0%—−3.3% ▼vs his ~20.3% career norm
- Walk %5.7%—−1.3% ▼vs his ~7.0% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.54 sits 0.56 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.357 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
- p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.5%vs his norm —
148 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.6%vs his norm —
148 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.291
lg avg .315 ▼−.024vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
194 / 200 TBF
xERA3.54
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.56vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
194 / 200 TBF
ERA6.54
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.44vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
42.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.0%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.0%vs his norm −3.3% ▼
194 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.3%vs his norm −1.3% ▼
194 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.357
lg avg .295 ▲+.062vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
148 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.2%vs his norm —
194 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.5%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.0%vs his norm —
194 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.0 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.0 mphvs his norm —
690 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.0%→18.7%signal0 K — K% 17.0% (signal) lifted to career ~20.3% → projected 18.7% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.54noise4.08 ERA — xERA 3.54 (noise) blended 3% skill / 97% league 4.10 at 23 IP.
BB% 5.7% + contactsignal1.30 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.306 gives a 1.38 skill WHIP, blended 3%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.08 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.