Rest of Season Projection
MattCategoryWalbert
67K →75
4.09ERA →3.27
1.30WHIP ←1.46
2–4W →2–5
0SV0
Current Season
MattCategoryWalbert
22K →41
8.49ERA →2.44
1.71WHIP →1.38
1W →2
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Matt Waldron
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.78 sits 0.32 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.384 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Walbert Ureña
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.259 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.27 is 0.83 above the ERA — regression coming
Matt Waldron: 68 K / 4.09 ERA. Walbert Ureña: 76 K / 3.27 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).