MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Walbert Ureña
week 31
this weekBUY
last weekSELL-HIGH

Walbert Ureña

LAA·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from SELL-HIGH on October 26, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.30, 0.80 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.84
ROSK 0ERA 3.30WHIP 1.36W 0–0SV 0

Ureña is a buy — the run prevention is earned, not lucky.

His expected ERA is 3.30, a full 0.80 below the league average of 4.10, and his sample of 625 batters faced is well past the point where that number becomes reliable. The contact profile backs it: hitters are managing a .281 expected wOBA against him, well under the .315 league mark, with a 35.2% hard-hit rate allowed and 5.4% barrels, both better than league. Nothing fluky is holding this up. His strikeouts sit right at league at 22.7%, yet he gets there with a 13.0% swinging-strike rate above the 11.0% average, and his fastball is averaging 97.9 mph against a 94.0 league mark. The expected ERA has been stepping down while the velocity steps up — that is a pitcher tightening his grip, not a run of soft contact. Walks run high at 10.9%, so there is traffic, but the skill underneath is genuine. Buy. 0 K and a 3.30 ERA ROS make deep-league players stash him now — the 1.36 WHIP is the only drag.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %10.9%—−2.0% ▼vs his ~12.9% career norm
  • Strikeout %22.7%—+1.6% ▲vs his ~21.1% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.30, 0.80 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.2%
35.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.8%vs his norm —
406 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.4%
5.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.6%vs his norm —
406 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.281
believable since Jun 5.281*
lg avg .315 ▼−.034vs his norm —
625 / 200 TBF
xERA3.30
3.30*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.80vs his norm —
625 / 200 TBF
ERA2.97
2.97*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.13vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
148.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.7%
norm22.7%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm +1.6% ▲
625 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.9%
norm10.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.9%vs his norm −2.0% ▼
625 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.263
.263*
lg avg .295 ▼−.032vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
406 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.0%
13.0%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —
625 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.7%
31.7%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.2%vs his norm —
625 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.9 mph
97.9 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.9 mphvs his norm —
2481 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.7%→22.3%signal0 K — K% 22.7% (signal) tempered to career ~21.1% → projected 22.3% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.30signal3.30 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.30 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 10.9% + contactsignal1.36 WHIP — a 11% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.279 gives a 1.39 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep0 K ROS, 3.30 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups