week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Walbert Ureña
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Sell High luck-free xERA 3.39 is 0.65 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.246 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.91 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 10ERA 3.39WHIP 1.37W 0–1SV 0
Ureña is a sell-high — his ERA is running on BABIP luck.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %22.5%—+1.4% ▲vs his ~21.1% career norm
- Walk %11.8%—−1.1% ▼vs his ~12.9% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.246 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.39 is 0.65 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.2%vs his norm —
355 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.6%vs his norm —
355 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.286
lg avg .315 ▼−.029vs his norm —
552 / 200 TBF
xERA3.39
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.71vs his norm —
552 / 200 TBF
ERA2.74
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.36vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
131.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm +1.4% ▲
552 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.8%vs his norm −1.1% ▼
552 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.246
lg avg .295 ▼−.049vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
355 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.3%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
552 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.1%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.6%vs his norm —
552 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.9 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.9 mphvs his norm —
2208 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.5%→22.1%signal10 K — K% 22.5% (signal) tempered to career ~21.1% → projected 22.1% over ~11 remaining…
xERA 3.39signal3.39 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.39 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 11.8% + contactsignal1.37 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.273 gives a 1.41 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep10 K ROS, 3.39 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.