week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Walbert Ureña
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Sell High luck-free xERA 3.28 is 0.40 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.257 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.81 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 46ERA 3.28WHIP 1.44W 1–3SV 0
Ureña is a sell-high — his BABIP is building the ERA.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %22.0%—+0.9% ▲vs his ~21.1% career norm
- Walk %13.0%—+0.1% ▲vs his ~12.9% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.257 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.28 is 0.40 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed32.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−7.7%vs his norm —
223 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.6%vs his norm —
223 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.283
lg avg .315 ▼−.032vs his norm —
354 / 200 TBF
xERA3.28
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.82vs his norm —
354 / 200 TBF
ERA2.88
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.22vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
81.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.0%
lg avg 22.0% 0.0%vs his norm +0.9% ▲
354 / 70 TBF
Walk %13.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.0%vs his norm +0.1% ▲
354 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.257
lg avg .295 ▼−.038vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
223 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.5%vs his norm —
354 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.0%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —
354 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.3 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.3 mphvs his norm —
1413 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.0%→21.7%signal46 K — K% 22.0% (signal) tempered to career ~21.1% → projected 21.7% over ~51 remaining…
xERA 3.28signal3.28 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.28 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 13.0% + contactsignal1.44 WHIP — a 13% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.284 gives a 1.52 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role1-3 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep46 K ROS, 3.28 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.