PIT

97 mph heat, xERA 3.03 — better than the ERA says

98.5 mph fastball, 37.8% K rate, 2.53 xERA — elite.

98 mph fastball, 29.6% Ks, 3.18 xERA — the profile is real.

96.8 mph heater, 28% Ks, xERA 3.3 beats the 3.82 ERA

xERA 3.39 with 26% Ks; only the BABIP is luck

97.3 mph heat, 5.2% walks, 3.45 xERA backs it

47.9% hard-hit, 11.2% barrels — .355 xwOBA backs the bat.

53.7% hard-hit and 15.3% barrels bury the 33% K rate.

14.6% barrels back the .350 xwOBA — legit pop.

45.8% hard-hit and 12.4% barrels outweigh the 28.7% strikeouts.

5.52 ERA hides 3.76 xERA; 90 mph velo caps upside

98.3 mph heat, .322 BABIP inflating a 4.46 ERA

43.8% hard-hit but a .269 BABIP is suppressing the line

28% Ks but 12% walks; xERA 3.32 not 2.86

37.6% strikeout rate caps a 19.9% barrel bat

92.4 mph exit velo is real, but 25.8% K caps the average.

xERA 5.51 and just 17.7% strikeouts — no miss, no results.

3.95 ERA hides a 4.89 xERA and 18% strikeouts

xwOBA .285 with just 27.8% hard-hit — surface masks a soft bat.

86.3 mph exit velo and a 2.4% barrel rate — no thunder.

xwOBA .290 with 90.3 exit velo — below-average bat path