week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Khristian Curtis
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — skill near league average (3.73); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Curtis is a hold — league-average skill, low strikeouts cap the ceiling.
ROS projects K 5 YTD → 0 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.73)
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed29.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−10.5%vs his norm —
61 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm —
61 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.298
lg avg .315 ▼−.017vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
87 / 200 TBF
xERA3.73
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.37vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
87 / 200 TBF
ERA4.71
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.61vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
21 / 200 IP
Strikeout %14.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−7.1%vs his norm —
87 / 70 TBF
Walk %13.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.8%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
87 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.233
lg avg .295 ▼−.062vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
61 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.9%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm —
87 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.7%vs his norm —
87 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.4 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.4 mphvs his norm —
349 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 14.9%→16.7%signal0 K — K% 14.9% (signal) lifted to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 16.7% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.73noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.73 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 8 IP.
BB% 13.8% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 14% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.290 gives a 1.73 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.