MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
339 PA · week 17
this weekBUY
last weekBUY

Ryan O'Hearn

PIT·RF
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Buy stable xwOBA 0.333, +0.018 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality — BABIP 0.330 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; add now.med 0.64
ROSHR 4AVG .249R 27RBI 29SB 1

O'Hearn is a buy — contact quality is on the rise.

His hard-hit rate has climbed across the season and now sits at 44.9%, nearly five points above league average, with a sample of 234 batted balls — well past the stabilization threshold. His launch conditions are translating into a .333 expected wOBA, 18 points above league, and that xwOBA has been trending up. His actual wOBA of .363 is 30 points higher, partly because his BABIP of .330 is above the league average of .295 and is still noisy — BABIP needs 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 234. Expect the batting average to settle as that luck normalizes. The underlying skill is good, the contact is getting better, and the sample supports the call. Buy.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %8.1%—+0.1% ▲vs his ~8.0% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.333, +0.018 vs league — production is earned
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.330 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.7 mph
89.7 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.7 mphvs his norm —
234 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %44.9%
44.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.9%vs his norm —
234 / 50 BBE
Barrel %8.1%
norm8.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm +0.1% ▲
234 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.333
.333*
lg avg .315 ▲+.018vs his norm —
339 / 160 PA
wOBA.363
.363*
lg avg .315 ▲+.048vs his norm —
339 / 200 PA
Strikeout %21.8%
21.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.2%vs his norm —
339 / 60 PA
Walk %7.7%
7.7%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
339 / 120 PA
BABIP.330
norm.330*
lg avg .295 ▲+.035vs his norm +.012 ▲BABIP is above his ~.318 norm — expect it to fall.
234 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.0%
10.0%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.0%vs his norm —
339 / 50 PA
Chase %32.2%
32.2%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.7%vs his norm —
339 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 8.1%→8.1%signal4 HR — Barrel% 8.1% (signal) tempered to career ~8.0% → projected 8.1%.
BABIP 0.330→0.295 regressednoise.249 AVG — BABIP 0.330 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.280 (xBA 0.263) → 0.295.
on-base + lineup27 R — his run rate over ~183 projected PA.
slugging + lineup29 RBI — his RBI rate over ~183 projected PA.
run rate / role1 SB — his steal rate (1 in 45 G) over ~183 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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