398 PA · week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Ryan O'Hearn
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
ON THE 10-DAY IL
Hold · steady skill near league average (0.321); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSAVG .233HR 1R 6RBI 7SB 0
O'Hearn is a hold — league average, nothing pulling either way.
ROS projects HR 8 YTD → 1 ROS, AVG .294 YTD → .233 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %7.2%—−0.8% ▼vs his ~8.0% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.321)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.3 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.3 mphvs his norm —
276 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %43.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.5%vs his norm —
276 / 50 BBE
Barrel %7.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm −0.8% ▼
276 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.321
lg avg .315 ▲+.006vs his norm —
398 / 160 PA
wOBA.343
lg avg .315 ▲+.028vs his norm —
398 / 200 PA
Strikeout %21.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
398 / 60 PA
Walk %7.8%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−0.7%vs his norm —
398 / 120 PA
BABIP.309
lg avg .295 ▲+.014vs his norm −.009 ▼BABIP is below his ~.318 norm — expect it to rise.
276 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.3%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm —
398 / 50 PA
Chase %31.7%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.2%vs his norm —
398 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 7.2%→7.5%signal1 HR — Barrel% 7.2% (signal) lifted to career ~8.0% → projected 7.5%.
BABIP 0.309→0.283 regressednoise.233 AVG — BABIP 0.309 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.269 (xBA 0.254) → 0.283.
on-base + lineup6 R — his run rate over ~41 projected PA.
slugging + lineup7 RBI — his RBI rate over ~41 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (1 in 45 G) over ~41 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.