MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 16, 2026
Portrait of Jarren Duran
Jarren Duran
BOS · LF
Change to
Ryan O'Hearn
PIT · RF
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Ryan O'Hearn.

He projects to help you in more roto categories the rest of the way — runs, RBI, and average. Jarren Duran’s box score looks better right now, but the luck-stripped projection flips it.

Head-to-head
HR
R
RBI
SB
AVG

Ryan O'Hearn wins 3 categories (R, RBI, AVG); Jarren Duran wins 2 (HR, SB).

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Avg Exit Velolg 89.0 · higher = better
Jarren Duran
89.3
Ryan O'Hearn
89.7
Hard-Hit %lg 40.0% · higher = better
Jarren Duran
37.5%
Ryan O'Hearn
44.9%
Barrel %lg 8.0% · higher = better
Jarren Duran
11.2%
Ryan O'Hearn
8.1%
Chase %lg 28.5% · lower = better
Jarren Duran
34.8%
Ryan O'Hearn
32.2%
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · lower = better
Jarren Duran
17.5%
Ryan O'Hearn
10.0%
xwOBAlg .315 · higher = better
Jarren Duran
.294
Ryan O'Hearn
.333
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · batting average
AVGhigher is better
Jarren Duran
.200.330
lg AVG .295
now .219
.200
Ryan O'Hearn
.200.330
lg AVG .295
now .294
.249

Volume · counting stats
Home Runshigher is better
Jarren Duran
512.40
now 10
5
Ryan O'Hearn
512.40
now 8
4
Runshigher is better
Jarren Duran
21.8032.20
now 29
25
Ryan O'Hearn
21.8032.20
now 28
28
RBIhigher is better
Jarren Duran
24.8036.20
now 33
28
Ryan O'Hearn
24.8036.20
now 30
31
Stolen Baseshigher is better
Jarren Duran
.00013.60
now 10
9
Ryan O'Hearn
.00013.60
now 1
1
If you already own them — trade angle
SellJarren Duran — sell.conf 0.59
BuyRyan O'Hearn — buy.conf 0.64
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