Rest of Season Projection
JakeCategoryRyan
5HR →10
38R →51
48RBI →54
19SB ←2
.258AVG →.263
Current Season
JakeCategoryRyan
4HR →8
20R →28
25RBI →30
10SB ←1
.288AVG →.294
What Each Player's System Trusts
Jake McCarthy
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.339 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.323 is 0.030 below the surface — regression coming
Ryan O'Hearn
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.358, +0.043 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Jake McCarthy: 5 HR / 38 R. Ryan O'Hearn: 10 HR / 51 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).