Rest of Season Projection
JakeCategoryJarren
5HR →11
35R →42
44RBI →47
18SB ←14
.249AVG ←.214
Current Season
JakeCategoryJarren
4HR →10
20R →29
25RBI →33
10SB10
.288AVG ←.219
What Each Player's System Trusts
Jake McCarthy
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.333 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.308 is 0.030 below the surface — regression coming
Jarren Duran
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.302)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 28% is stable and high — caps the floor
Jake McCarthy: 5 HR / 35 R. Jarren Duran: 11 HR / 42 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).