Rest of Season Projection
JacksonCategoryJarren
12HR12
36R →44
31RBI →50
14SB →15
.251AVG ←.216
Current Season
JacksonCategoryJarren
2HR →10
13R →29
11RBI →33
5SB →10
.276AVG ←.219
What Each Player's System Trusts
Jackson Chourio
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.403 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.349 is 0.036 below the surface — regression coming
Jarren Duran
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.303)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 29% is stable and high — caps the floor
Jackson Chourio: 12 HR / 36 R. Jarren Duran: 12 HR / 44 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).