MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Jarren Duran
376 PA · week 17
this weekSELL
last weekHOLD

Jarren Duran

BOS·LF
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026
Sell stable xwOBA 0.294 below league with no luck excuse; strikeout rate 30% is stable and high, caps the floor; move on.med 0.59
ROSHR 5AVG .200R 24RBI 27SB 8

Duran is a sell — skill below league, trending worse.

His expected wOBA is .294, well below the league average of .315, and he has enough plate appearances for that number to be reliable. His actual wOBA is even lower at .268, so there is no bad-luck story: the line is worse than the skill, not better. His contact quality is mediocre — exit velocity at league average, hard-hit rate below, though barrel rate slightly above — but xwOBA already accounts for that. The trend is concerning: his xwOBA has been stepping down across the sample, and his strikeout rate is stepping up, now at 30.1% versus the league average of 22%. That swing-and-miss problem caps his floor. There is no luck to come back to; this is a bat that is below average and getting worse. Sell. 5 HR, 24 R, 27 RBI, 8 SB, .200 AVG — a drop-tier drag with no skill reserve to tap.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %11.2%—+2.6% ▲vs his ~8.6% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.294 below league with no luck excuse
  • k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 30% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.3 mph
89.3 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.3 mphvs his norm —
232 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %37.5%
37.5%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.5%vs his norm —
232 / 50 BBE
Barrel %11.2%
norm11.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.2%vs his norm +2.6% ▲
232 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.294
.294*
lg avg .315 ▼−.021vs his norm —
376 / 160 PA
wOBA.268
.268*
lg avg .315 ▼−.047vs his norm —
376 / 200 PA
Strikeout %30.1%
30.1%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+8.1%vs his norm —
376 / 60 PA
Walk %7.2%
7.2%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−1.3%vs his norm —
376 / 120 PA
BABIP.243
norm.243*
lg avg .295 ▼−.052vs his norm −.102 ▼BABIP is below his ~.345 norm — expect it to rise.
232 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %17.5%
17.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+6.5%vs his norm —
376 / 50 PA
Chase %34.8%
34.8%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.3%vs his norm —
376 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 11.2%→10.0%signal5 HR — Barrel% 11.2% (signal) tempered to career ~8.6% → projected 10.0%.
BABIP 0.243→0.257 regressednoise.200 AVG — BABIP 0.243 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.262 (xBA 0.224) → 0.257.
on-base + lineup24 R — his run rate over ~197 projected PA.
slugging + lineup27 RBI — his RBI rate over ~197 projected PA.
run rate / role8 SB — his steal rate (10 in 53 G) over ~197 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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