Rest of Season Projection
JacksonCategoryJake
12HR ←5
36R →37
31RBI →46
14SB →19
.251AVG →.254
Current Season
JacksonCategoryJake
2HR →4
13R →20
11RBI →25
5SB →10
.276AVG →.288
What Each Player's System Trusts
Jackson Chourio
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.403 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.349 is 0.036 below the surface — regression coming
Jake McCarthy
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.319)
Jackson Chourio: 12 HR / 36 R. Jake McCarthy: 5 HR / 37 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).